Beleaguered Braddon Liberal candidate Adam Brooks is no certainty to be elected, a leading political analyst says.
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Mr Brooks has been accused by two women interstate of tricking them into thinking he was a different person by using a fraudulent VicRoads driver's licence. He is said to have met the women via dating apps.
The Victorian Transport department is investigating the matter and has referred it to Tasmania Police.
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The 46-year-old Mr Brooks vigorously denies the allegations. He has so far received more than 6000 first preference votes, just ahead of sitting Liberal member Felix Ellis. Mr Brooks is beating Housing Minister Roger Jaensch by more than 1000 votes.
Political analyst Richard Herr said that despite Mr Brooks' apparent lead in the count over Mr Ellis and Mr Jaensch, it wasn't yet a certainty that he would win a seat, given that the surplus votes of Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff - who has received close to two quotas - would likely aid Mr Jaensch's bid for re-election.
"I would find it extraordinary if enough of the Rockliff surplus didn't go to Roger Jaensch [to re-elect him]," Professor Herr said.
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"If the larger share of [Mr Rockliff's surplus votes] goes to Jaensch, as I would expect, then my feeling is that Jaensch will be safe and it'll be a sort of race between Ellis and Brooks.
"If we assume [Mr Rockliff's preferences] were likely to go more towards the sitting members, then Brooks might not get in at all. But if Brooks' local support means that he gets a lot of Jeremy Rockliff's preferences, second or third, then he will be elected."
On Tuesday, Mr Brooks announced in a statement on Facebook that he would be taking legal action against "organisations and certain individuals", following the airing of the allegations.
"I am aware of deliberate attempts to misrepresent, fabricate and distort certain aspects of my personal life in a sustained attempt to politically damage me during and after this campaign," he said.
If we assume [Mr Rockliff's preferences] were likely to go more towards the sitting members, then Brooks might not get in at all. But if Brooks' local support means that he gets a lot of Jeremy Rockliff's preferences, second or third, then he will be elected.
- Richard Herr, political expert
"I also reinforce my previous statements in relation to false accusations."
Meanwhile, Peter Gutwein reaffirmed his commitment to resign as Premier if he and his Liberal colleagues were plunged into minority government when the election result was finalised.
"In terms of the conversations that I've had with Mr Brooks, he has emphatically denied the allegations against him," the Premier said on Wednesday.
When asked if potentially needing to rely on Mr Brooks for a one-seat majority was what he'd had in mind when campaigning on a platform of stable majority government, Mr Gutwein replied: "We'll wait and see what occurs with the remainder of the count."
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