Peter Gutwein is set to win the 2021 state election, becoming Australia's fifth incumbent leader to be re-elected since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and the first in the state's history to secure a third consecutive term for a sitting Liberal government.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
He will follow in the footsteps of Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner, ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Queensland and Western Australian premiers Annastacia Palaszczuk and Mark McGowan, who have all notched election wins since the coronavirus changed our nation's way of life.
But there are factors that set Mr Gutwein apart from his interstate counterparts. Firstly, he's a Liberal.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Secondly, Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system tends to guard against lopsided results, such as the one seen in WA.
The results we saw flood in on the night of the 2021 state election seemed to suggest that incumbency during a crisis doesn't always equate to a convincing electoral windfall.
It's widely accepted that Mr Gutwein, who's only been the Liberal leader since Will Hodgman resigned in January last year, has handled the COVID-19 pandemic effectively, accumulating enormous good will in the electorate in the process.
After Mr McGowan won the WA election in a landslide, the prospect of an early election in Tasmania would have seemed irresistible to Mr Gutwein.
Yet there's always the concern that voters will punish an incumbent for sending them to the polls sooner than expected - in this case, by nearly a year.
Mr Gutwein's reasoning for calling an election when he did was criticised as specious by his opponents.
The decision by Speaker of the House of Assembly and Clark Liberal MHA Sue Hickey to quit the Liberal Party and sit as an independent, effectively plunged the government into minority in March.
The results we saw flood in on the night of the 2021 state election seemed to suggest that incumbency during a crisis doesn't always equate to a convincing electoral windfall.
But two days into the election campaign, when the Liberals unveiled their candidates, independent MHA Madeleine Ogilvie was among them. This prompted Labor and the Greens to question whether Mr Gutwein's justification for an election was legitimate, given he could have feasibly asked Ms Ogilvie to sit on the Treasury benches and thereby preserve his majority on the floor of the house.
Given the most likely election result at this stage is a single-seat majority for the Liberals, it would be reasonable to query why an election was necessary at all, let alone an early one.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that Adam Brooks, who could win a seat for the Liberals in Braddon, will have to resign if he is elected, following allegations he forged a Victorian driver's licence to dupe a woman he met via a dating app. Victorian authorities are investigating but Mr Brooks vigorously denies the allegations.
If he were to resign, it would prompt a recount for his seat.
As for Labor, some serious soul-searching will be needed. Its chaotic start to the campaign, where internal ructions came to the fore, would no doubt have influenced a number of Tasmanians' votes.
The fact that the Liberals didn't win in a landslide will surely be counted in Labor leader Rebecca White's favour. The question on everyone's lips on Sunday will be if she will remain leader of the party.
But it won't be the only question people will be asking.
Another will be this:
Was this the election we didn't need to have?
What do you think? Send us a letter to the editor: