The Liberals are likely to win their craved majority and govern Tasmania for a third term.
Premier Peter Gutwein's team will take 13 or 14 of the 25 seats.
Labor will finish with eight or nine.
The Greens will stay on two or get to three with a surprise win in Bass and one of the high-profile Clark independents will get up.
The Liberals will win three or four seats in Bass and three in each of Braddon and Lyons.
They will take two in Franklin and are set to take two in Clark.
Clark independents Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey are vying for a seat, with Ms Johnston 225 votes ahead of Ms Hickey at the time of writing.
Labor will take just one seat in Clark and might suffer the same fate in Bass if the Greens manage a seat.
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