Speaking anonymously, a senior figure from each of the Liberal Party and Labor felt the momentum had shifted to Labor in recent days.

Both felt Labor was making ground through its health focus and attacks on the Liberals over the "health crisis" and alleged spending cuts in health (which the Liberals deny).

Neither expected the Labor momentum would be enough to sweep it into government, but they believed the long-expected Liberal majority was no longer a certainty.

Recent polling results suggested health and jobs and the economy were by far the biggest vote deciders for Tasmanians.

That, in turn, suggested the expected election bounce for the Liberals from Premier Peter Gutwein's popular handling of the coronavirus pandemic had either been overstated after previous strong poll results, or was fading as voters returned to their usual concerns.

For these reasons, I'm pulling back from a previous prediction of the Liberals winning 14 of the 25 seats, underpinned by a 4-1 win over Labor in Bass.

I'm tipping 13 Liberals (a bare majority), nine Labor MPs, the two sitting Greens and Clark independent Kristie Johnston to make up the 25 elected MHAs.

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.

NOW: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: Liberals 4, Labor 1.

NOW: Liberals 3, Labor 2.

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.

NOW: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: Liberals 2, Labor 2, Greens 1.

NOW: Liberals 2, Labor 2, Greens 1.

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: Liberals 2, Labor 1, Greens 1, independent 1 (Johnston).

LATEST: Liberals 2, Labor 1, Greens 1, independent 1 (Johnston).

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: Liberals 14, Labor 8, Greens 2, independent 1.

NOW: Liberals 13, Labor 9, Greens 2, independent 1.