The Liberals are leading Tasmania's election race, but Labor believes it can match or perhaps improve upon its 2018 result.
That is according to a well-placed Labor source familiar with the results of recent polling done for the party.
"They (the Liberals) are in front, but it's comparable to the last election," the source said.
They said the polling suggested Labor would not be hit by a wipe-out on May 1 similar to that which crushed the opposition parties in the recent West Australian election or the sort of thumping the Queensland LNP took as voters rallied behind premiers who had taken similar "strong on borders" stances to Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Liberals won the narrowest possible majority with 13 seats in the 2018 Tasmanian election, Labor took 10 and the Greens two.
"We're not going to die wondering," the Labor source said.
"We could be more competitive (than last time)."
They said the polling results - which this newspaper has not seen - did not suggest a Labor victory.
"That would be pretty hard," they said.
But also, they said the polling had not pointed to the sort of big bounce in support for the Liberals widely suspected to have occurred because of Mr Gutwein's popular handling of the coronavirus.
They said it might be that strong public approval of Mr Gutwein's pandemic performance had made up for the damage to the Liberals from losing huge-polling former premier Will Hodgman, who quit the parliament early in 2020.
The source did not believe voters would punish Labor over coronavirus as it had agreed with most of the government's responses.
Labor would continue to push on health and housing, areas where the Liberals had "manifestly failed".
"We believe our health message is getting through ...," they said.
The source said the polling suggested the Liberals were in danger of winning just one of the five seats in Hobart electorate Clark and the Liberals were not as strong in neighbouring Franklin (Mr Hodgman's old seat) as they would have hoped.
They said the best possible result for the Liberals in Franklin was two seats.
Winning just three seats between the two Southern electorates would leave the Liberals needing to jag four seats in one of Bass, Braddon and Lyons and three in each of the others to get to 13.
The outlook in Clark was hard to read because of the presence of high-profile independent candidates Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey.
"There's still a couple of seats up for grabs," the Labor source said.
"Liberal, Labor or independent."
Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content: