Premier Peter Gutwein's early election call might be proven wise if an economic forecaster has the Tasmanian outlook right.
"Tasmania's economy navigated 2020 better than any other state thanks to success in crushing COVID numbers and in surfing the generosity of federal taxpayer support," Deloitte Access Economics said in its latest quarterly Business Outlook report.
"But it has probably seen the best of its recovery.
"Taxpayer support is fading and further growth may be more of a grind than it's been so far."
Deloitte is forecasting Tasmanian employment will continue to grow, but at a slower rate out to 2024-25.
It forecast total employment would grow by 2.4 per cent in the current financial year, then drop to 1.5 per cent in 2021-22 and tail off to 0.5 per cent, 0.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent in the following three years.
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Annual growth in average weekly earnings was forecast to lift to 1.8 per cent by 2023-24, but only after slumping to 0.6 per cent in 2021-22 and 0.9 per cent the following year.
Deloitte said several ongoing issues continued to trouble Tasmania.
They were its heavy reliance on migration and on services exports such as tourism and international education - all of which had been hit by the pandemic - and the risk of a drop in business investment.
"A key determinant of Tasmania's economic future will be the extent to which it can attract professionals looking for a tree change with the ability to work remotely," it said.
Deloitte said Tasmania's coronavirus success helped its economy grow by an estimated and nation-leading 2.3 per cent in calendar year 2020.
It said a rapidly recovering economy had led to a strong jobs market, almost all sectors were contributing to the recovery and job advertisements were rising at the fastest rate in the nation.
It said cautious optimism was needed despite "some tremendous leaps and bounds".
"Crucial government support programs have recently been withdrawn ... leaving many Tasmanian workers and businesses exposed, a likely dampener on jobs."
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