A Liberal majority government is the most likely state election result, but it is not 100 per cent certain.
Thirteen is the magic number of seats across the state the Liberals or Labor need to form majority government and not have to worry about deals with anyone else to get legislation through the House of Assembly.
(The Legislative Council is quite another matter.)
After analysing the May 1 election chances across the five seats, finishing with the Southern seat of Clark in this piece, three key possibilities emerge.
My main prediction is the Liberals will take 14 seats, with a rare but not unprecedented 4-1 win over Labor in Bass and two seats in Clark vital to the result.
In the scenario, there would be eight Labor MHAs, both sitting Greens would survive without Green gains elsewhere and independent and Glenorchy Mayor Kristie Johnston would be elected in Clark.
If I am over-rating the Liberals' chances in one of Bass or Clark, they would fall in with a bare majority (13 seats), barring surprises in Braddon, Franklin or Lyons.
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If they can't manage four in Bass and two in Clark, they will (barring surprises elsewhere) fall just short of a majority, with 12 seats.
The prediction for Clark is two Liberals, one Labor, Greens Leader Cassy O'Connor and Ms Johnston.
One Liberal, two Labor, O'Connor and Ms Johnston is a significant possibility.
I am expecting former maverick Liberal speaker Sue Hickey's bid to be re-elected as an independent in Clark to fail.
Clark (formerly Denison) is tough to predict, and it helps to start with the apparent certainties.
They are taken to be the Liberals, Labor and the Greens to each secure one seat, with the majors each a chance at two.
s election expert Kevin Bonham has astutely noted, Labor pulling away from its anti-pokies policy should help a rebound in the Green vote.
Ms O'Connor, who polled solidly in 2018 despite Labor's anti-pokies stance cannibalising the Green vote, should be re-elected comfortably.
It is impossible to see the majors not getting at least one each.
Incumbent Ella Haddad should be the certainty for Labor and Attorney-General Elise Archer the Liberal equivalent.
That leaves two seats for two of a second Liberal, a second Labor candidate, Ms Hickey or Ms Johnston.
Many Liberal voters will turn on Ms Hickey, while "left" voters will tend to favour Labor or the Greens.
Swinging voters and those who prefer independents are likely to favour Ms Johnston over Ms Hickey.
Like Ms Hickey, Ms Johnston has great name recognition, but does not have the political baggage from the last term of parliament.
She should gain a strong vote in Glenorchy and has been astute in pushing some policies similar to those of seemingly unbeatable independent Clark federal MP Andrew Wilkie (opposition to pokies, for example).
Given the base votes of the Liberals and Labor, the loyal Greens base and Ms Johnston's wider appeal, it seems Ms Hickey's chances can be discounted.
That leaves second Liberal, second Labor and Ms Johnston vying for two seats.
It seems likely Ms Johnston will take more first preference votes from Labor than the Liberals.
There is also the Gutwein factor to consider.
While Clark is hardly a Liberal stronghold, the Premier's popular response to the pandemic has sent his poll ratings soaring and should secure extra votes for the Liberals there.
In 2018, the Liberals had 2.26 quotas after first preferences and Labor 2.51.
It would not surprise if the Liberals beat Labor on that measure this time, putting them in the box seat for two.
If so, Ms Johnston could have to hold out a second Labor winner to be elected.
She should manage it, if that is how things fall.
Labor's field of candidates lacks star power.
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The Liberal ticket does better for name recognition and, again, has the Gutwein factor.
Don't be surprised if Labor MHA turned independent turned Liberal candidate Madeleine Ogilvie comes in second for the Liberals behind Ms Archer.
Ms Ogilvie would still have a level of support from Labor conservatives who did not like how the party treated her, and Liberal types can be expected to be enthusiastic.
Hobart councillor Simon Behrakis and former RACT chief executive Harvey Lennon would also have hopes of taking a second Liberal seat.
STATE OF PLAY
NOW: Liberals 2 (Elise Archer, Madeleine Ogilvie), Labor 1 (Ella Haddad), Greens 1 (Cassy O'Connor), independent 1 (Sue Hickey).
SINCE 2018 ELECTION: Labor's Scott Bacon quit parliament and was replaced by Ms Ogilvie on a recount. The former Labor MP sat as an independent and will run as a Liberal candidate in this election. Ms Hickey recently quit the Liberals to run as an independent after being told the party would not preselect her.
Liberals 2 (Elise Archer, most likely Madeleine Ogilvie); Labor 1 (Ella Haddad); Greens 1 (Cassy O'Connor), independent, 1 (Kristie Johnston).
Liberals 1 (Archer), Labor 2 (Haddad, plus one), Greens 1 (O'Connor), independent 1 (Johnston).
Braddon: Liberals, 3; Labor 2.
Lyons: Liberal, 3; Labor, 2.
Bass: Liberals, 4; Labor, 1;
Franklin: Liberals, 2; Labor, 2; Greens, 1.
Clark includes the Hobart and Glenorchy council areas and part of the Kingborough municipality.
(13 or more needed for majority)
Liberals 14; Labor 8, Greens 2, independent 1.