Tasmania looks set for a long and hard recovery from the coronavirus crash.
Hopes of a relatively smooth return to economic strength took what seemed like a fatal blow on Thursday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its September job figures.
Until August, a net 14,900 Tasmanians had gained or returned to jobs since the low point of the crash in May.
A massive number of Tasmanians - 21,900, more than the entire population of Burnie - lost jobs between the February peak and May, as virus-related restrictions and business shutdowns and difficulties took centre stage.
The ABS estimated 2400 more Tasmanians lost or left jobs than gained them between August and September, in seasonally adjusted terms.
The bureau estimated 1 per cent of employed Tasmanians lost that status during the month.
To put that in context, employment in the hardest hit state - lockdown-stricken Victoria - fell by 1.1 per cent.
Tasmania had made promising strides in its employment recovery up until the latest figures.
However, there are significant headwinds.
One is Victoria.
That state's economy has been crushed and will take ages to recover.
And Victoria, by a mile, is the most crucial mainland state for the Tasmanian economy.
Also, many Tasmanian businesses would only be hanging on because of the JobKeeper wages subsidy.
That can't last forever and, as the stimulus taps are inevitably turned off, many weaker businesses will die.
That is the case in every downturn, and this is a doozy of a downturn.
Further, most of the significant global economies have been absolutely hammered.
China, which is faring relatively well, played a big role in saving Australia from the Global Financial Crisis.
However, China does not appear to be feeling especially generous at present.
Unless Tasmania gets very, very lucky, this is going to be tough for a long time.