When Treasurer Josh Frydenberg stands at the despatch box in the House of Representatives on Tuesday night, we will finally get to hear his vision for a post-pandemic, post-recession Australia, and how the Morrison government is going to deliver that vision.
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Of course, as is the habit of governments these days, weeks of pre-budget announcements and the rumour mill working at top speed means Australians already know much of what will be in the speech.
Wage subsidies for new apprentices, assistance for first home buyers to build new homes, tax concessions for businesses and $1.5 billion for manufacturing have already been locked in. While it hasn't been said specifically, that tax cuts already legislated for 2024 will be brought forward is being reported as signed, sealed, delivered.
On Tuesday we will see the full picture, all of these measures as they fit in the puzzle among other yet-to-be seen measures. We will also finally see what measures, and who, are left out of the budget. The government has said it will not concentrate on getting the budget into surplus until the unemployment rate is below 6 per cent, so any cuts to spending will be difficult to justify for reason of debt.
The Treasurer has set the scene for unemployment to rise above its current levels, but not as far as the 10 per cent that had been predicted by Treasury and the Reserve Bank.
Mr Frydenberg is not the first Australian treasurer to grapple with how to lead the country out of a recession. But his cocktail of problems to solve is unique. We cannot depend on there being a continual flow of new people to build houses, spend money and add to the economy. Economic stimulation will need to come from other sources.
Every budget is always reported with a list of winners and losers, and for many, there is significantly more than usual riding on being a winner this time around. While the government has signalled it is unlikely to return the JobSeeker unemployment payment back to its previous level of $40 a day at the end of the year, it is vital that people are given certainty and a payment that helps them to thrive, not just survive.
