Job numbers are not expected to recover to pre-coronavirus levels until 2023, according to ANZ analysis.
ANZ economists warned against government stimulus measures being withdrawn too early and setting back economic recovery from the coronavirus crash.
"There is little doubt that fiscal policy will play a much larger role in supporting growth over the next few years, and the biggest mistake would be a premature withdrawal of stimulus," Felicity Emmett, Catherine Birch and David Plank said in an Australian Economic Insight note issued on September 15.
"Massive fiscal stimulus has so far sheltered Australia from the worst of the economic impacts of the pandemic-associated shutdowns.
"While GDP (gross domestic product) fell a record 7 per cent in the June quarter, the result would have been far worse without fiscal support amounting to close to 15 per cent of GDP in the quarter."
Tasmanian Shadow Treasurer David O'Byrne said the ANZ analysis showed the fragility of the state's jobs market.
"At the height of the pandemic, more than 20,000 Tasmanians lost their jobs," Mr O'Byrne said.
"We are still a long way from getting all those people back to work.
"Cutting JobKeeper now risks Tasmania's recovery.
"A post-JobKeeper drop will sap confidence.
"Businesses that will lose the payment despite ongoing revenue shortfalls could be forced to cut jobs, pushing more Tasmanians into unemployment and making our recovery harder.
"(Premier) Peter Gutwein owes it to Tasmanians to fight to save every job and every business, rather than risking our recovery by backing cuts to JobKeeper."
Mr Gutwein on Monday said Tasmania had regained more than 15,800 jobs since the peak of the pandemic's impact in May.
" ... we will continue to work harder every day to restore business confidence and to grow our state to be the economic powerhouse it was before the pandemic," Mr Gutwein said.
He said a recent NAB Business Survey found Tasmania had the nation's best business conditions.
The ANZ economists said fiscal support and other measures like mortgage and business loan deferrals and temporary protection from insolvency had so far prevented some of the worst "second round" effects normally seen in deep downturns.
"But it is not clear how long this will continue to be the case," they wrote.
"The extended lockdown in Victoria has severely hit quarter three growth and much of the fiscal support is scheduled to end in quarter four."
They said consumer spending had been boosted by very large fiscal stimulus for households.
"With support payments set to be reduced sharply from the end of September, however, the outlook for household spending is particularly uncertain," they wrote.
"On the current timetable, there is set to be a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the order of 10 per cent in quarter four."
They said they expected stimulus would not be prematurely withdrawn, with more big stimulus announcements expected in the federal budget on October 6.
"This spending will be aimed at supporting incomes in the short term and driving jobs growth in the medium term," they said.
"Moreover, we expect state governments to announce large support packages of their own."