Premier Peter Gutwein has outlined four key reasons why Tasmania's border is likely to remain closed until December 1, but has downplayed a suggestion from a senior Public Health figure that there's just a one-in-ten-million chance of coronavirus being brought in to the state from anywhere not deemed a hot spot.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Mr Gutwein's comments come as he falls under increasing pressure from the Opposition and interest groups to fully detail the public health advice his government has received to inform its border policy amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Speaking in Launceston yesterday afternoon, Mr Gutwein detailed the "processes and considerations" underlining the government's border-related decisions.
In other news:
These included the risk posed by community transmission occurring in other jurisdictions; the significant health resources being drawn to Victoria to fight the state's second wave; the preparedness of Tasmania's aged care sector and; Treasury modelling indicating that if COVID-19 was to flare up in Tasmania again, it could rip half-a-billion dollars from the economy and result in further business closures and job losses.
Appearing to respond to a statement issued by the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday morning, Mr Gutwein said the business community would know "full well" that the Treasury modelling had forecast a potentially dire situation for the state.
"For the benefit of the business community, do not wish a second wave on those businesses that you represent," he said. "Because businesses that have closed once won't reopen again. And job losses will be the result."
TCCI chief executive Michael Bailey urged the Premier to reopen the state's border to certain jurisdictions, after the revelation that Public Health deputy director Scott McKeown had told political leaders in a briefing earlier this week that there was a one-in-ten-million chance of the coronavirus being brought in to Tasmania from any state not deemed a virus hot spot.
For the benefit of the business community, do not wish a second wave on those businesses that you represent.
- Peter Gutwein, Premier
"These figures are a game-changer," Mr Bailey said. "The Premier has led us fantastically through the COVID pandemic, now is the time for him to lead us out, save and create jobs and get Tasmanian business humming again."
But Mr Gutwein stressed that the figure was "not a piece of modelling from the state government".
"I would hope that people don't try to twist that into something that it wasn't," he said. "I want to be clear: this captivation with a number that was provided in answer to a question, it's not the basis of the decision to keep our borders closed until December 1.
"It's based upon the risk that's occurring in Victoria and New South Wales, the possibility of transmission to other jurisdictions, the preparedness of our health sector, importantly the preparedness of our aged care sector and for the business community, the potential damage that a second wave would incur."
Labor leader Rebecca White called on the government to release the modelling it's using to inform its decisions.
Recognising the 75th anniversary of the end of WWII:
"The government needs to be really transparent around the advice it's taking from Public Health that's guiding some of the most significant decisions that the government has taken in a long time," she said. "This is information that needs to be shared. The government needs to be transparent about what evidence it's relying on to make decisions that are keeping restrictions in place right now."
Meanwhile, University of Tasmania policy expert Richard Eccleston backed the decision to keep Tasmania's border closed for the time being, saying a "precautionary approach" was required.
He said academics at UTAS and other research institutions had created a model allowing them to predict how the virus would spread in the community in a range of different scenarios.
"It is our view that you can't assess the risk of reopening borders based on a simple statistical calculation," Professor Eccleston said. "Our model reveals how easily we could get a very damaging second wave in Tasmania if risks are not well-managed. The research shows there is an enormous amount of uncertainty."
What do you think? Send us a letter to the editor: