Tasmania will need more than four years to replace all the jobs it lost in the coronavirus crash, going by new forecasts.
Employed people in the state peaked at 261,300 in February - just before the crisis hit - according to seasonally adjusted Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
The estimated total crashed to 240,100 by May.
Deloitte Access Economics forecasts Tasmania's number of employed people to drop by 4000 this financial year, then to recover in subsequent financial years.
It forecasts employment to hit 258,000 in 2023-24, still 3300 behind the February record.
Tasmania's economy started 2020 on a roll, Deloitte's latest quarterly Business Outlook report - titled Fast Crisis, Slow Recovery - said.
"However, some of the relative strengths that led to the good times of late have also left the Apple Isle susceptible to the fallout of COVID," it said.
Much of that related to the movement of people.
"The reliance on international students and tourism left Tasmania exposed to travel and operating restrictions," Deloitte said.
"These industries are likely to feel the pain for a while, although hopefully a pick-up in interstate and intrastate tourism can somewhat help recover the latter."
It said Tasmania had long "suffered" from university-age residents moving interstate in search of opportunity and being replaced by retirees moving to the state for a slower pace of life.
"This weighs on the size of the labour force and birth rates, as well as the level of skilled employees in the state," it said.
"This effect will be mitigated at least in the short term, although this outflow may slowly pick up as interstate borders reopen."
It said migration from overseas and interstate had helped offset an ageing population and low natural population growth, but that had left Tasmania exposed to an event like the pandemic.
"As such, population growth is expected to dip in coming years," it said.
The report said Tasmania's relatively large healthcare and government sectors had given it some insulation against job losses during the crisis.
" ... Tasmania's economy looks as if it will make a modest recovery after the pandemic has passed, although economic activity and the influx of international tourists and students is unlikely to return to pre-COVID levels for some time," it said.
Nationally, it predicted: "The ranks of the unemployed will be badly swollen for a while."