Both sides of the looming Liberal leadership battle are confident they can prevail in what's being described as a tight contest, but party sources say support appears to be firming for Treasurer Peter Gutwein as the next premier of Tasmania.
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Premier Will Hodgman announced his resignation on Tuesday, noting that a meeting of the Parliamentary Liberal Party would decide his successor.
That meeting is scheduled to take place at 12pm on Monday.
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Mr Gutwein has put his hand up to replace Mr Hodgman, with Jeremy Rockliff hoping to continue to serve as deputy premier, while Infrastructure Minister Michael Ferguson is also vying for the top job, backed up by Attorney-General Elise Archer as his prospective deputy.
It's understood the Gutwein-Rockliff camp believes it has secured eight votes in its favour, with the possibility of attracting a ninth.
The winning candidate needs eight votes for a majority, with 14 Liberal members set to participate in the vote.
Mr Hodgman has stated he himself won't be voting, even in the case of a deadlock where a casting vote could be utilised.
Mr Ferguson's camp has been pitching his "people skills" to his colleagues - with one source saying he's "as good as Hodgman" when it comes to engaging with and relating to people in the electorate - as well as the opportunity he could provide for recalibration and a fresh look for the government.
Meanwhile, Mr Gutwein's camp is pitching stability, experience and continuity.
A Liberal figure close to Mr Ferguson's camp said there was one member who had provided assurances to both sides and therefore had been incongruously chalked up as a vote for both the Gutwein-Rockliff and Ferguson-Archer tickets.
The Examiner was also told some members had been attempting to obtain "advantages" in exchange for their support.
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While certain members of the PLP are expected to vote in accordance with factional allegiance - Mr Gutwein and Mr Rockliff are moderates, while Mr Ferguson and Ms Archer are conservatives - four members are shaping as potential swing votes.
They are Police Minister Mark Shelton, Braddon MHA Joan Rylah, Leader of the Government in the Legislative Council Leonie Hiscutt and Prosser MLC Jane Howlett.
Speculation has been rife that Mr Rockliff may opt against re-contesting his seat at the 2022 election should he and Mr Gutwein's leadership bid fail.
But it's now understood the Braddon veteran intends to stand again regardless of the outcome of the vote.
Deputy Labor leader Michelle O'Byrne said neither Mr Gutwein nor Mr Ferguson had demonstrated to Tasmanians that they were "able to do the job that they're employed to do".
Rob Inglis
Rob Inglis is a reporter with The Examiner, covering state and federal politics. He is based in Hobart.
Rob Inglis is a reporter with The Examiner, covering state and federal politics. He is based in Hobart.
