Fears that Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff could follow the leader and leave politics has given Treasurer Peter Gutwein an advantage in seizing the party leadership.
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Some in the party believe if Infrastructure Minister Michael Ferguson and Attorney-General Elise Archer take the party's two leadership positions, Mr Rockliff might take the chance to retire early.
This would mean another exit of a big-vote winner from the party with Premier Will Hodgman's imminent resignation.
Others believe Mr Rockliff will stay on regardless of how the vote went as he has unfinished work to do in his ministerial portfolios.
It is believed that he will not seek to contest the deputy position if Mr Gutwein loses the leadership ballot.
Mr Rockliff entered Tasmanian Parliament with Mr Hodgman in 2002 and the pair have been a leadership team for the past 14 years.
If Mr Rockliff was to leave, a recount would be triggered for his seat.
With former government member Adam Brooks ineligible to nominate for the recount, the seat would go to federal government media adviser Felix Ellis should he nominate.
Mr Ellis nominated for a recount in Braddon when Mr Brooks resigned last year.
Liberal parliamentary party members were canvassed on Friday on how they would vote in the ballot.
Many declined to comment or return calls.
Government backbenchers Jane Howlett and John Tucker were asked their leadership preferences at a media event with Mr Hodgman but also declined to declare preferences.
It is understood that Ms Howlett and Mr Tucker, along with Joan Rylah and Leonie Hiscutt, are key to who will become the next Premier and Deputy Premier.
Liberal insiders have said the vote would be narrow but thought it likely that Mr Gutwein would win the ballot so stability in the higher ranks would be maintained.
It is thought that if Mr Gutwein lost, then his position as treasurer would either be seen as untenable or that he would choose not to continue in the position.
This would leave the position open with government minister Guy Barnett - the most likely candidate for the role.
Fresh faces in the government's top three positions would represent a dramatic change which might unnerve government members.