After significant bushfires throughout the state at the start of the year resulting in more than 200,000 hectares being burned, fire and emergency services authorities are preparing for an early start to the 2019-20 bushfire season.
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The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre published its 2019 Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook earlier this week, showing Tasmanians on the East Coast and parts of the Midlands needed to be prepared for an above average fire risk this season.
Below average rainfall, coupled with higher-than-normal temperatures in the state's eastern half, has authorities on alert, with preparation already underway for the season ahead.
Tasmania Fire Service Community Safety director Sandra Whight said the real driver behind increased bushfire risk was the "significant rainfall deficit in eastern Tasmania".
"We expect the bushfire season to start in late spring, around mid to late October," Ms Whight said.
The Bushfire Outlook shows Tasmania's East Coast "is drier than normal, especially between the Forestier Peninsula and Scamander".
Higher risk bushfire areas include Bicheno, Freycinet, Swansea, Little Swanport and Buckland.
"This eastern dry area has above normal fire potential. Without significant rain in the coming months, this area will expand," the report notes.
"...increased fire activity is likely in this dry strip before December and will require considerable response efforts," the outlook stated.
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Besides the lack of rain and higher temperatures, another factor impacting bushfire risk is the volume of fuel, and its condition.
Ms Whight said areas that were traditionally damp forest and could be used as burning boundaries were no longer suitable.
"We think about fuel as being available or not available and it is coming online much earlier. The wetter fuels are now much drier," she said.
"We've been monitoring fuels at the moment."
The outlook report says "eastern peat soils will be susceptible to fire and will burn to depth, with traditionally wet or damp gullies already dry".
However, the Bushfire Outlook also points to a normal bushfire season for the rest of the state, noting the western half has been particularly wet this year.
"The rest of the state has normal bushfire potential [for Tasmania], which will be about two or three total fire ban days. Total fire bans and permits are based on the weather forecast, which is a shorter forecast, whereas the outlook is based on the fuel condition," Ms Whight said.
"We live in a very bushfire prone part of the world," she said.
The role weather plays
Bureau of Meteorology records show Tasmania's winter has been drier and warmer than normal this year, taking the West Coast out of the equation.
Hobart-based climatologist Ian Barnes-Keoghan said the East Coast had "a fairly dry winter; not record-breaking dry, but it's right down there with drier than usual".
"Most months since the end of 2016 have been drier than usual, and it continues to be dry, so things have just been drying out over that time," Mr Barnes-Keoghan said.
"On top of that the temperatures have been warmer than average .... so there is a general theme of drying out," he said.
Despite having some periods of rainfall, even on the East Coast, the amount has not been enough to bring fuel moisture levels back to normal, so they are remaining dry.
"The accumulated rainfall deficit means we have to get a lot of rain to make up for that," Mr Barnes-Keoghan said.
"The fire risk is not just about how dry it is, but also fuel, so TFS does on-ground assessments in danger areas to see how much fuel there is at different times," he said.
How to prepare for bushfire season
Tasmanian agencies and authorities are already preparing for bushfires.
"The real message from the TFS is that we'd really like to see people getting ready for the fire season now," Ms Whight said.
"They should have bushfire plans in place now and should discuss them with their family and their neighbours."
Communities along the East Coast have already started bushfire discussions, with Break O'Day mayor Mick Tucker advising it was better to be prepared ahead of time.
"Unfortunately our community has experienced firsthand the devastation of bushfires in the past so they are all too aware what this report may mean, " Mr Tucker said.
"We would like to emphasise to our community to be prepared, but not alarmed," he said.
Federal Natural Disaster and Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud said much of Australia was at risk because of the hot and dry start to this year.
"We're working with councils, states and territories to keep Australians safe this summer. We cannot afford to be complacent," Mr Littleproud said.
"Think about your evacuation plans and think about what you need to take with you.
"If we work together and look out for each other, we'll get through the bushfire season," he said.
This be prepared sentiment was backed by Mr Tucker.
"We would encourage everyone in our community to make sure they have a bushfire preparedness plan and know where their Nearby Safer Places are, any information they need can be found on the TFS website," he said.
A multi-agency meeting on bushfire risk, planning and management will be held on Thursday, September 19, at The Tramsheds, Launceston.
Tasmania Fire Service has a section devotes to bushfire planning on its website. For more information visit fire.tas.gov.au
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