Only modest Tasmanian retail sales growth has been forecast for the next two financial years years, despite an expected "post-election sugar hit" from tax cuts.
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Forecaster Deloitte Access Economics expects Tasmanian retail turnover growth will increase from a forecast annual rate of 1.6 per cent in the current financial year to 1.9 per cent in 2019-20, before sliding to just 1 per cent in the following year.
It forecast growth of 2.5 per cent and 2.1 per cent in the following two years.
The last four of those were weaker than national forecasts for the same years.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently estimated Tasmanian retail turnover had declined for six consecutive months in trend terms, ending a run of record monthly sales.
Nationally, Deloitte's latest Retail Forecasts publication forecast national sales growth of 1.4 per cent in the current financial year, then 2.6 and 2.5 per cent.
Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens said March quarter retail data confirmed Deloitte's view consumers were not as willing to spend as they once were.
"People are pulling back on spending as household finances remain under pressure from stagnant wage growth and declining wealth," he said.
"But our outlook for 2019 is a tale of two halves, and there is some good news ahead.
"While the first half of the year is constrained by weak income growth, the latter half will likely receive a boost as monetary and fiscal stimulus work together for the first time in over a decade.
"A deteriorating labour market, inflation below the target range, weak consumption and falling house prices were enough to prompt monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia for the first time in nearly three years, and lower rates will leave some much needed cash in the pockets of Australia's highly indebted households.
"In addition, the post-election sugar hit of tax offsets for low and middle earners are likely to boost household incomes in the second half of 2019."
He said tax cuts usually led to marginally higher pay packets and a gradual increase in consumption.
"The difference this time around is that the tax policy changes will be putting cold, hard cash in the hands of consumers once they have lodged their returns," he said.
