Labor's Ross Hart has phoned his likely successor in Bass, Liberal candidate Bridget Archer, to congratulate her on what looks to be a win in the electorate, admitting "I can't see how the gap [in votes] can be closed".
While the Australian Electoral Commission continues to count votes across the nation, it does appear at this stage that Ms Archer has a pathway to victory.
If Mr Hart is ousted after just one term, he will join a long line of first-term Bass MPs to get the boot when seeking re-election.
Mr Hart's opponent stopped short of claiming victory on the night, and stuck to this position on Sunday morning, as the enormity of Labor's nationwide failure began to sink in further.
The swing to the Liberals in Tasmania was at 3.7 per cent at the time of print.
With 85.3 per cent of the vote counted in Braddon, Liberal candidate Gavin Pearce seems to have trounced incumbent Labor MHR Justine Keay, with a lead of 4016 votes.
As at 3.01pm on Sunday, the Liberals were enjoying a 5.8 per cent swing in their favour in Bass, with Ms Archer leading Mr Hart on a two candidate preferred basis - 50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent. That was with 81.9 per cent of the vote counted.
Ms Archer was beating Mr Hart by 437 votes - by no means a convincing lead, but an encouraging one nonetheless.
"Things are looking very good in the results," Ms Archer said. "I'm hopeful that I'll get across the line."
The centrepiece of the Liberals' campaign in Bass was the party's relentless criticism of Labor's $25 million pledge to get a Tasmanian AFL team off the ground and $50 million to help MONA expand its public areas.
"I do know with certainty that ... the people of Bass did not feel that prioritising [these things] was demonstrating the priorities that they believed to be important," Ms Archer said.
Mr Hart said he'd called Ms Archer to congratulate her "on a win" on Sunday.
"I can't see how the gap [in votes] can be closed," he said.
Just after 5pm, Ms Archer posted a message on Facebook, stressing that the contest in Bass "remains close".
"Postal vote and pre-poll counting is continuing," she wrote.
"However, I am feeling positive having seen the swing towards our campaign in booths already counted.
"I am ... looking forward to the finalisation of the count".