Labor strategists have been left scratching their heads at where their campaign in Bass went wrong, suffering strong swings against the party in some of the electorate's most blue collar areas.
While the count remains tight - with Liberal candidate Bridget Archer 320 votes ahead and refusing to claim victory - many analysts believe there is no path for a Labor victory.
So what happened for Labor?
Click on a booth to see the result (two-party preferred):
Perhaps surprisingly, the lower socio-economic area booths of Rocherlea, Waverley and Ravenswood had some of the strongest swings away from Labor, at 15.1 per cent, 11.1 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.
Labor still comfortably won the booths, but Clive Palmer's United Australia Party may have played a role in these areas and ate into the Labor vote, with preferences going to the Liberals. UAP polled almost 10 per cent in Waverley and 8 per cent in Ravenswood.
Full coverage for Bass: Another incumbent MP booted from office as Bass goes blue for Bridget
Areas of Launceston with higher rates of home ownership also swung heavily to the Liberal Party, including Trevallyn at 16.4 per cent, St Leonards at 14.9 per cent, and Riverside at 12.6 per cent.
Ms Archer's local profile in George Town also appears to have boosted their vote. The two booths in the town were previously among Labor's strongest, but they had swings of over 11 per cent to the Liberals.
Just eight of the 54 booths in Bass swung to Labor, and most were by just one per cent.
The source said the decisions crowded out Labor's job creating policies of a new hydrogen export site at Bell Bay and a fermentation facility at Legana.
"The funding for Mona and the AFL were certainly decisions made by the Shorten team," The Examiner was told.
"Neither of these were in the Tasmanian Labor strategy.
"It didn't matter that we were spending $150 million more on health, millions more on schools, we couldn't cut through. It was AFL and Mona, and that's what the Liberals jumped on."
The overall swing to the Liberals was 5.8 per cent in Bass with counting continuing.
Tasmanian Labor Senator Helen Polley said it was clear that the party would need to "reassess" after the counting was completed.
The boundary redistribution may have helped Labor, after former Bass areas of Hadspen and Prospect Vale both strongly backed Jessica Whelan in Lyons.
Biggest swings to the Liberals in Bass (two-party preferred)
Karoola: 16.5 per cent
Trevallyn: 16.4 per cent
Rocherlea: 15.1 per cent
St Leonards: 14.9 per cent
Riverside: 12.5 per cent
George Town South: 11.2 per cent
George Town: 11.2 per cent
Waverley: 11.1 per cent
Biggest Liberal voting (2PP)
Bridport: 70.6 per cent
Riverside: 63.8 per cent
Scottsdale: 63.4 per cent
Biggest Labor voting (2PP)
Invermay Primary School: 66.5 per cent
Ravenswood: 65.7 per cent
Waverley: 61.5 per cent