Politicians may not end up courting Tasmania as much as other states in the federal election campaign, but there will nonetheless be a number of intriguing contests in the state.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
With both major parties having to gain additional seats in order to win government, the campaign is expected to be a bitter and divisive one.
Tasmania turned almost entirely red at the 2016 election, as Labor won Bass, Lyons and Braddon, vanquishing three first-term Liberal MPs. The impressive haul added to the ALP's claim to Franklin, held by Julie Collins since 2007.
RELATED:
The Liberals are hopeful of retaking one of their lost seats, meaning the focus of the campaign here will be in the state's north.
This is the first of a two-part election form guide from The Examiner. The first part will deal with Tasmania's MPs in the House of Representatives, while the second will deal with our senators.
Bass
Ross HART (ALP) - 5.4 per cent - IN PLAY
Bass, a largely urban electorate, is known as a swing seat. Electors here have sent 17 representatives to Canberra since federation - the most of any electorate in the country.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham said Bass had a history of "throwing out the incumbent".
"As a sitting member, you'd always be a little bit nervous [in Bass]," Dr Bonham said.
"The margin last time [was] a bit inflated by the strength of [GetUp!'s] campaign against [former Liberal MP] Andrew Nikolic, which blew up in the last week and wasn't really detected in any of the polling.
As a sitting member, you'd always be a little bit nervous [in Bass]
- Kevin Bonham
"[Bass is] probably more interesting than it looks on paper. Even so, I'm not aware of any strong evidence that the Liberals will capture it."
Dr Bonham said he had seen recent internal Liberal Party polling for Bass, which indicated that Liberal candidate Bridget Archer was in a dead heat with Labor incumbent Ross Hart in two-party-preferred terms. He described the numbers as "suspect in some regards".
THE CANDIDATES SO FAR:
- Ross Hart (ALP)
- Bridget Archer (LIB)
- Tom Hall (GRN)
- Carl Cooper (NAT)
- Allan Roark (UAP)
"I would say that on paper [Bass is] a probable Labor retain," he said.
Political expert Richard Herr noted that Bass had historically had "very, very large double-digit swings".
"It's not a safe party seat, even with 5 per cent," he said.
Lyons
Brian MITCHELL (ALP) - 3.8 per cent - RELATIVELY SAFE
In contrast to Bass, Lyons - the state's largest electorate - has had only 11 members since its inception in 1903, when it was known as Wilmot. Since its name was changed to Lyons in 1984, only four MPs have represented it. Professor Herr described Lyons as a "personality seat" and said he believed its loyalty to incumbents could be traced to its status as a rural seat.
"People on the land help each other out," he said. "It has more of that mateship element about it."
"The people vote for their local member - they won’t be swayed by parties.
"I'm sure that Brian Mitchell will be hoping ... that he's done the kind of constituency work that helps convert it into a seat that sticks with the local member whichever way the party swings happen to go."
THE CANDIDATES SO FAR:
- Brian Mitchell (ALP)
- Jessica Whelan (LIB)
- Gary Whisson (GRN)
- Deanna Hutchinson (NAT)
- Mick Warne (UAP)
Dr Bonham noted that Lyons was one of the most difficult electorates in Australia for candidates to cover.
"There's so many tiny little towns," he said. "And there's a premium placed on personal recognition."
"I'd say that Lyons is less in play than Bass or Braddon. I think it's highly likely that Labor will retain Lyons."
Braddon
Justine KEAY (ALP) - 1.7 per cent - IN PLAY
Coming off a relatively unconvincing 2018 byelection win there, Labor holds a notably slim margin in Braddon.
"I think Braddon's a little bit more interesting than the other [electorates in Tasmania] because there's a case from the Braddon byelection," Dr Bonham said. "Labor's result at the Braddon byelection was actually not very good."
THE CANDIDATES SO FAR:
- Justine Keay (ALP)
- Gavin Pearce (LIB)
- Phill Parsons (GRN)
- Graham Gallaher (PHON)
- Kate Spaulding (UAP)
- Bruno Strangio (APP)
"Labor got a gift in the form of [independent candidate] Craig Garland showing up and the Liberals spent the last week of the campaign fighting with Craig Garland and [Labor] got away scot-free."
Dr Bonham said there was an argument to be made that the contest would have been much closer had Mr Garland's not been a candidate.
"At this stage I still think that [Labor will] more likely than not retain but it's more interesting. Even if there's a couple of per cent swing nation-wide, it's still possible that something will fall back across the line."
Clark
Andrew WILKIE (IND) - 17.7 per cent - SAFE
Independent Andrew Wilkie has been a powerful crossbencher in Canberra for the past decade, earning him an almost unassailable margin in his inner-city electorate of Clark (formerly known as Denison).
Professor Herr said Mr Wilkie had turned Clark into a "personal electorate".
THE CANDIDATES SO FAR:
- Andrew Wilkie (IND)
- Amanda-Sue Markham (LIB)
- Ben McGregor (ALP)
- Juniper Shaw (GRN)
"From Andrew's point of view, the vulnerability comes in the flow of preferences," he said. "As long as he is the front-runner in Clark, he'll retain the seat."
"I think that Andrew Wilkie’s agenda has been a sort of centrist Labor Party agenda and that suits [Clark]."
Dr Bonham said the past three years had been a "favourable term" for Mr Wilkie.
"He's had another hung parliament so he's been able to deliver more announcements for the electorate," Dr Bonham said.
"I don’t detect any anecdotal evidence that people are getting ready to go back to Labor just yet."
Franklin
Julie COLLINS (ALP) - 10.7 per cent - SAFE
Veteran Labor MP Julie Collins will be feeling confident at the outset of the campaign, with a healthy margin in the traditional Labor stronghold of Franklin - Australia's southernmost electorate.
THE CANDIDATES SO FAR:
- Julie Collins (ALP)
- Dean Young (LIB)
- Kit Darko (GRN)
- Darren Winter (UAP)
Dr Bonham said he thought Ms Collins had profited from having "weak" opponents at the preceding two elections.
"I wouldn't say [2019 Franklin Liberal candidate] Dean Young is by any standards a world-beating opponent but maybe the Liberals might not have the distraction level of previous elections," he said.
Professor Herr said Franklin had been "strong Labor" for a long time.
"Julie has done the work her constituency expects of its Labor representative," he said.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Have you had your say in The Examiner's election survey?