Internal polling by the Liberals for the federal seat of Bass indicates a dead heat between the two major party candidates in the event of an election.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
The party released the polling on Saturday which showed Liberal candidate Bridget Archer and Labor incumbent Ross Hart neck-and-neck on a two-party-preferred basis.
The polling of 545 constituents showed Ms Archer could win 39 per cent of the primary vote and Mr Hart 38.8 per cent.
Taking away votes from other parties would put the Liberals in lead at 50.4 per cent compared to Labor on 49.6 per cent.
The polling was done by Media Reach on Thursday after the release of the federal budget.
As for the other parties, 5.4 per cent of those polled preferred the Jacqui Lambie Network, 4.4 per cent the United Australia Party, 4.3 per cent the Australian Greens, and 1.9 per cent the Nationals.
The results led Tasmanian Liberal Party executive director Sam McQuestin to say he believed the battle of Bass was heating up ahead of the federal election.
"The coming election is about who is better placed to deliver on jobs, health and protecting the Tasmanian way of life," he said.
But political analyst Kevin Bonham cautioned over the reliance of data from a single poll done by one party this far ahead of polling day without having seen any other polling done by the Liberals.
He said seat-by-seat polling with a low sample base had produced a number of errors in recent years.
"I'm inclined to treat one poll with scepticism without having seen any others," he said. "It has the major parties' primary votes roughly level, and normally if that was the case, Labor would win on preferences easily."
Dr Bonham said the Greens' vote would normally be higher in Bass, which had a reputation as a fickle electorate, but there were interesting dynamics at play with the inclusion of minority parties.
