Tasmania is getting stronger economic growth partly because conditions suit some of its most competitive industries, a forecaster believes.
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“ … those industries where the Apple Isle has a comparative advantage - tourism, agriculture, food and beverage manufacturing - are doing quite well thanks to a positive economic backdrop,” Deloitte Access Economics said in its latest Business Outlook report.
“The lower Australian dollar and growing demand from major Asian markets have provided a boost to the economy more broadly.”
It said strong growth in agribusiness had contributed much to the state’s growth.
It said the economic growth was worth celebrating, but remained below the national average.
The report also mentioned growth in the salmon farming industry and said tourism was booming, which helped retail.
“At the same time, the largest Tasmanian industry of all, healthcare, has experienced relatively steady growth on the back of the state’s ageing population,” the report said.
It said business sentiment was strong, the state had gained full-time and part-time jobs and housing prices were “running hot”.
Deloitte said success was breeding success for Tasmania.
“Tasmania’s better economic news is feeding better news on population growth, which is, itself, feeding back into better news for the state’s economy,” the report said.
“Yet that virtuous cycle is playing out at a relatively modest pace.
“Population growth has been on a steadily improving trend for a number of years now ... but it isn’t even half of the national rate.”
Deloitte said it still expected Tasmania’s shares of national population and economic output to fall during the next five years.
It said the construction outlook appeared to be more positive and there was every chance property prices would continue to rise.
It expected interest rates would stay at historic lows until early 2019.
The report forecast modest increases in employment for the next three financial years.
It predicted continued strong growth in international tourist arrivals and solid but not spectacular increases in gross state product for the next four years, ranging between 2.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.