Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham keeps a close eye on not only elections but also snails and chess.
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Dr Bonham, 46, of South Hobart has risen to national prominence since he started his election blog in 2012.
His first degree was in political science and philosophy but his doctorate was in science and was on the bio-geography and classification of Tasmanian snails.
He is Tasmania’s only land snail expert.
“When I was very young I had an interest in sea shells and it was encouraged by my grandmother,” Dr Bonham said.
“I started finding land snails when I was out in the bush looking for other things such as native orchids which is another long standing interest that I have had.
“Now I’ve got 200 species of snails on the Tasmanian list.”
Dr Bonham spends the majority of his working life as a consultant on invertebrates but also is paid to analyse elections.
His first foray into the political sphere came when he was a teenager.
“At 16 I was a scrutineer for a Hobart City Council election and they had to find out whether a person who was 16 could scrutineer,” Dr Bonham said.
He was a scrutineer for his mother, Alderman Pru Bonham, who was elected to the Hobart City Council.
As editor of the University of Tasmania’s student magazine, Togatus, Dr Bonham got a taste for writing political commentary.
He then wrote regularly for the online website Tasmanian Times.
“I’ve never wanted to join a party because I’ve never found a party that is even close to agreeing with my combination of views on issues,” he said.
“I sort of fall in the gaps between the parties to a large degree.”
He pays some attention to overseas politics but rarely covers it.
“There’s no such thing as a normal day for me, but I monitor social media and media sites and write on average two articles a week, sometimes more,” Dr Bonham said.
“In the Australian sephology landscape there are a number of us who all cover the territory slightly differently.
“We all complement each other because of our slightly different approaches to the subject matter, we have our own niches.
“A lot of it is data driven.
“My main gambit is trying to apply patterns from the past to the present.
“For example, what do we know about polls and polls have behaved relative to election results in the past and what will happen if this continues to happen?
“You do try to think about what you know the average voter our there might think about things.”
In the current election he is not convinced removing poker machines from pubs and clubs is a vote changer.
“Pokies aren’t something that’s on everyone’s mind - it is not going to be a deciding issue for everyone.
“This election is one of the most all over the place elections I’ve seen in terms of the sheer number of issues that are in play.
“It’s not about one thing.”
Dr Bonham said the absence of public polling has made the task for analysts difficult.
“There’s been no public polling since late last year.
“When the majority/minority government thing comes into play Tasmania can be very volatile.
“People assume there will be a hung parliament off the back of last year’s polling and that’s premature to conclude.
“It seems possible to me that the Liberals will stay in government with a majority.
“A lot of the voters who say they are undecided, but leaning to a party, will nearly always vote for that party.
“My impression is the Liberals spent most of last year asleep,” he said.
“Then suddenly at the start of this year they were all fresh and perky and out of the blocks and saying ‘we’ve got all the ideas to fix every problem in Tasmania’.
“It does raise the question what were they doing about all these things last year?”
On Labor he believes the party is looking to the future.
“It’s a rebuilding exercise. I think Labor will gain a few seats but whether it is enough for a hung parliament I’m not so sure.”
“On pokies, Labor has robbed the Greens of oxygen.
“I feel it is hard for them (the Greens) to compete with (Rebecca) White, a young, female, relatively left-wing Labor leader.”
When the election is done and dusted Dr Bonham will continue in the politics of the chess world as an Australian delegate to the World Chess Federation.
