Tasmania autumn weather: rain and warm days, nights

Get yourself a new pair of gumboots, Tassie – we’re in for a wet autumn.

The Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday released its climate outlook for March to May, with all indicators pointing to above average rainfall for the state.

Most of the state has a 65 to 70 per cent chance of exceeding its rainfall median for the three months.

The North-East and East Coast have even better odds, of between 75 and 80 per cent.

But we’re still in for some warm temperatures. 

The bureau’s modelling shows Tasmania is pretty much guaranteed to surpass its median maximum temperatures for autumn.


The median temperature for Launceston for autumn is between 18 and 21 degrees, dropping to 15 to 18 degrees for the East Coast and non-coastal North-East, and 12 to 15 degrees for the Central Highlands.

Next month could still produce some warm days, based on the historical maximum mean temperatures of 21 to 24 degrees for greater Launceston.

Those hot nights are not behind us, either – expect balmy evenings to stick around into May.

While the La Niña often gets the blame for out-of-the-ordinary weather events, the bureau’s modelling does not indicate it has much effect on the coming weather patterns.

Instead, the autumn rainfall and temperature is likely to be influenced by ocean and atmosphere patterns.