The how-to guide from Parliamentary Services for MHRs booted last weekend is brutal.

No farewell newsletters to constituents, no more paid travel, no Cabcharge and instructions not to step foot on your office premises again. 

The $50,000 payout is a nice touch, though.

While Australia remains in governance limbo, the picture was pretty clear for Tasmania’s lower house MPs by about 8.30pm on election night.

“Adios amigos” was the message to Liberals Andrew Nikolic, Brett Whiteley, and Eric Hutchinson.

And how quick the transition was from MHR to dumped incumbent.

Mr Whiteley deleted his Facebook account shortly after the loss and by Monday Mr Nikolic’s office had its signage removed.

As the election results flowed into the newsroom, the general mood was one of shock.

One amigo, or even two amigos, but not all three were expected to go.

And the national result was neck and neck, and still is.

But why was it such a shock?

The polls always predicted it would be close, but the media never seemed to contemplate that Labor would do as well as it has.

Journalists, politicians and analysts were all stuck in a microcosm of polls and assumptions.

Surely something would have to be very wrong to kick out a first term government?

At a pub in Launceston before the count started the barman asked me who I thought was going to win.

I said the Coalition with a reduced majority, and adios to one amigo.

He shook his head.

“Nah dude, I’m telling you, everyone I speak to at the bar is voting Labor.”

I dismissed it as an inaccurate sample of voters – perhaps only lefties drink boutique beer!

Alas, as the votes trickled through, it appeared Tasmanians firmly rejected the status quo.

The Coalition underestimated the importance of health and education to those in regional areas, and the fright given to people in the tough 2014 budget must have stayed with people.

Its campaign was not tailored well enough to reassure Tasmanians the things they cared about and relied on would be protected.

Flash matching signs and televisions ads with two word slogans were not accepted.

The scare campaign by Labor over Medicare was effective, and again, it was underestimated how worried people in regional areas were about health services.

The campaign nationally lacked character, and failed to resonate in Tasmania.

People opted to believe the scare campaign.

Former Liberal premier Robin Gray came out this week and said the Liberal Party had no idea how to win seats in Tasmania.

Mr Gray said candidates would never succeed without personal support.

He said you can put all the signs up in the world, but without personal following it won’t get you elected.

So as the dumped MHRs return their Commonwealth-owned items, they are no doubt reflecting on what they did wrong, and how they fell victim to a party that lost the plot.