Dean looks likely to be reinstated
IVAN Dean is expected to seize victory in the upper house seat of Windermere after preferences are carved up in coming days.
At the close of the count after Saturday's election, Mr Dean held 44 per cent of votes in a four-way race for the Northern seat.
He held a comfortable lead over Labor's Jennifer Houston (28.6 per cent), independent ex-unionist Scott McLean (16.6 per cent), and Greens candidate Vanessa Bleyer (10.8 per cent).
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the buffer should see Mr Dean reinstated with a final margin of about 55:45, which is roughly the same as when he was last re-elected in 2009.
Mr Dean was reluctant to claim the win on Saturday night, but said he was quietly confident.
"It's a very good position to be in but I'm a realist and things can change very, very quickly," Mr Dean said.
"I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch but the signs are fairly strong at this stage."
Ivan Dean is expected to seize victory in the upper house seat of Windermere after preferences are carved up in coming days.
Second-placed Jennifer Houston conceded she had been left with a very slim chance of winning.
"It might be closer once all the preferences are in but we're unlikely to get across the line," Ms Houston said.
"Given the left vote was split three ways - with nothing splitting the conservative vote - I think we've done really well."
Dr Bonham said Mr McLean, a former Labor member, had cut into Ms Houston's vote.
"If he wasn't in the mix Labor would have been at least a few points higher but still wouldn't have been a chance of winning," he said.
Dr Bonham said a 5.5 per cent swing against the Greens came as no surprise.
"The pulp mill isn't an issue, they're not travelling too well at a state level, and their candidate this time around wasn't particularly high profile," he said.
Gaffney, Farrell seats are secure
INCUMBENTS Mike Gaffney and Craig Farrell have stormed home in Legislative Council elections to reclaim their seats for another six years.
Mr Gaffney enjoyed Saturday night's most convincing win, securing 75 per cent of all votes in the North-West seat of Mersey.
He put the emphatic victory down to voters' desire for local representation.
"In a small community you get to know people very quickly and very easily and I've been working hard in this region for many years," he said.
"I think the fact the other candidate [Vivienne Gale] wasn't from Mersey, but instead from Launceston, didn't help her cause at all."
Mr Gaffney said having been returned to office, his attention would now turn to health reform public forums across the North-West this week, and the looming state budget.
His challenger, Ms Gale, could not be contacted for comment last night.
In the sprawling Southern seat of Derwent, Labor MLC Craig Farrell won all bar one polling place and secured 65 per cent of primary votes.
Mr Farrell said the successful campaign had revved him up for another term in the upper house.
"The campaign's given me a chance to assess things and look at the best points of the job and realise how much I want to keep doing it," he said.
"It does give you a bit of a boost, but also an indication of the areas I might need to do a bit more work in."
Challenger Alan Baker said he was ecstatic with the result, despite going down in the two-way contest.
"For someone that's just appeared from nowhere I think snaring one-third of the vote is a pretty good effort," he said.
"My three-week campaign was busy and time consuming, but it was a great learning experience, and I look forward to trying again next time."
The final votes for each seat will be counted today.