There is hardly any greater certainty in the AFLW draft than Mia King's selection.
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But what will shock novice onlookers is that the multiple All-Australian junior will not be a top five, 10 or first-round pick when names are read out in the opening minutes of Tuesday morning's draft.
The stipulation behind the AFLW draft is that players can nominate their preferred state and King's decision to remain home all but ensures Launceston 18-year-old will journey to North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos.
"I don't know if it's exactly a guarantee because we don't know what will happen in the draft," Tasmanian AFLW development manager Leigh Elder said.
"If other Victorian clubs don't select the best Victoria talent that they see, then they will keep continuing drafting Victorians. I would be very surprised if an all-Australian inside player like she is won't get picked up."
King was first identified as AFLW material while in the academy system as far back as 2016 while still running around in the NTJFA.
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"She has the quality of getting into the first round," Elder said. "But seeing she has nominated Tasmania, North will select her when they start selecting Tasmanians."
In the second year of the state-based draft, King would even have the chance to sign for one of the other 13 AFLW clubs in free agency should the Kangaroos overlook the gun inside midfielder.
For that alone, King will attend draft day in Melbourne.
Not that the timing is ideal.
"She had actually debated that - obviously she's going through year 12," Elder said.
"Exam time is obviously a bit of a concern - she's fretting over those. She's going to be there on the day, but she's pretty comfortable knowing that she is going to be taken."
Launceston ruck Abbey Green is the other expected to be called out. The 22-year-old has worked hard on her game over three years.
"She is very athletic, tall and strong, had a terrific start to the TSLW season this year, which she really put her hand up, which also suits North's needs, which is fantastically well for us and her of course," Elder said.
"A ruckman that can play key position, which gives them a bit of flexibility to use Emma King up forward."
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Andrew Mathieson
The day I realised I wasn't good enough to play for St Kilda or be the No.1 spinner for Australia was when I realised journalism was the closest I could come to follow my passion for sport. And it's not just about the scores for me. It's the back story behind the game.
The day I realised I wasn't good enough to play for St Kilda or be the No.1 spinner for Australia was when I realised journalism was the closest I could come to follow my passion for sport. And it's not just about the scores for me. It's the back story behind the game.
