The major parties have both gained ground in the big Northern polling booths since the 2014 state election, with the Greens suffering a significant reduction in their share of the primary vote.
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On March 3, a second Liberal majority government was returned, making Premier Will Hodgman only the second Tasmanian Liberal Premier to win consecutive majorities and the first since Robin Gray in 1986.
While the count is still ongoing, the Liberals have all but secured 12 seats in the lower house, Labor nine and the Greens just one.
Four seats are still up in the air, one each in Bass, Lyons, Braddon and Franklin.
The seats in Bass and Franklin represent the two most crucial contests, as it is still uncertain which party will claim them.
ALP candidate Jennifer Houston and incumbent Greens MHA Andrea Dawkins are slugging it out in Bass, while Liberal backbencher Nic Street and incumbent Greens MHA Rosalie Woodruff are engaged in a tight contest in Franklin.
Overall, the Liberals suffered only a negligible swing against them, while the ALP enjoyed a relatively positive swing in their favour.
At the Newnham polling booth, the Bass Liberals gained 103 first preference votes, up 7.3 per cent on 2014.
Labor, meanwhile, received 17 fewer first preference votes there, 920 in 2018 compared to 937 in 2014, a 1.8 per cent swing against them.
At the affluent Launceston suburb of Norwood, the Liberals experienced a 3.7 per cent swing against them, down from 1533 first preference votes in 2014 to 1476.
In Lyons, the St Helens booth appears to have sustained a reduction in voter engagement, with 504 fewer ballot papers received when compared to 2014.
It is unclear whether this will change in the coming days, as more of the vote is counted.
In any case, the Liberals have so far copped a whopping 36.28 per cent swing against them at St Helens.
The ALP, on the other hand, saw a 4.56 per cent increase in its vote at the key North-East booth.
At the Deloraine booth, the ALP received a 23 per cent swing in its favour.
The Greens, however, endured an abysmal 29.3 per cent swing against them.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham wrote on his blog that the fifth seat in Bass would “likely” go to Labor, while the final seat in Lyons would go to one of two ALP candidates: Janet Lambert or Jen Butler.
