The AEMC’s annual report on price trends indicated a national fall in prices from mid-2018 as variable wind and solar generation comes online. 

It follows a 11 per cent price rise nationally in past 12 months, which translated into a 2 per cent rise within Tasmanian households.

AEMC chairman John Pierce warned the findings were dependent on putting resources in the right places.

“Without investment in replacement dispatchable capacity, wholesale prices will go up again and remain volatile.

“To this end, the AEMC is working with other market bodies on the Energy Security Board on the national energy guarantee design.

“We have a window right now for the COAG Energy Council to continue its work on mechanisms that can work in the long term interests of consumers and keep the lights on as the energy sector continues to restructure.”

The AEMC analysed the factor driving electricity prices for households in each territory and state. In Tasmania, it found regulated network costs made up 54 per cent of household energy bills, with 28 per cent coming from wholesale costs and 6 per cent from environmental costs.

The wholesale costs increased 36.4 per cent this year due to the exit of Northern and Hazelwood coal generators and higher gas prices.

The AEMC report showed the wholesale costs could fall by 25.4 per cent annually for the next two years as new wind and solar generation enters the market and Queensland’s Swanbank E gas generator returns to service.