If the same-sex marriage postal survey returns a majority ‘yes’ result, the federal Parliament will vote on whether or not to change the Marriage Act.
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The results of the survey will not only offer a national count of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes, but will also break it down by state and territory and Commonwealth electoral division.
So, if a majority ‘yes’ vote is, indeed, returned, and a parliamentary vote is conducted, MPs will have a wealth of data before them to inform their votes if they so desire.
Of course, all parliamentarians have a view on same-sex marriage one way or another.
But when Tasmanian independent Senator Jacqui Lambie recently appeared on ABC’s Q&A television program she said she would be voting in accordance with the Tasmanian majority, despite being personally against the idea of same-sex marriage.
This begs the question: how do Tasmania’s other federal MPs intend to vote in the Parliament if the postal survey produces a majority ‘yes’ vote.
Will they vote with the nation, with their state or, if they are an MHR, with their electorate?
THE LIBERALS
Senator Eric Abetz has said he will be “guided” by the electors of Tasmania in the event of a parliamentary vote.
A spokesman for Senator David Bushby said the senator would “respect the wishes of the Australian people and Tasmanians as expressed through the postal survey”.
A spokesman for Senator Jonathan Duniam, meanwhile, said the senator would vote “in accordance with the majority view of the public … even if that differ[ed] with how he voted in the postal survey”.
Senator Duniam’s spokesman could not confirm whether the senator intended to vote with the Tasmanian or the Australian majority.
The Libs and Nats for Yes campaign has published a list of Coalition figures past and present who support same-sex marriage.
Only one Tasmanian is on the list: former Bass Liberal MHR and Cabinet minister Warwick Smith.
LABOR
Tasmanian Labor members seem almost unanimously supportive of same-sex marriage, but have largely opted against revealing their intended voting methodologies for a parliamentary vote
Braddon MHR Justine Keay did not want to “preempt” the outcome of the postal survey by outlining her voting intentions in a prospective parliamentary vote.
Ms Keay said Labor would be voting ‘yes’ in the survey and “encouraged other Tasmanians to vote yes”.
“I am encouraging everyone in Braddon to fill out their ballots and post them as soon as possible, to ensure their voice is heard,” Ms Keay said.
Bass Labor MHR Ross Hart echoed Ms Keay’s comments.
“I’m campaigning for a ‘yes’ vote,” he said.
“I do not believe that it is useful to comment on the consequences of the vote at this stage.”
Franklin MHR Julie Collins also urged Tasmanians to vote ‘yes’ in the survey, but would not reveal the method she would use if she was voting in the Parliament.
Lyons MHR Brian Mitchell was more forthcoming.
“I've voted ‘yes’ because I believe in equality for all Australians, and that is how I will vote in the parliament,” he said.
Senator Lisa Singh did not explicitly confirm what would guide her in a parliamentary vote on the issue, but said she supported same-sex marriage.
“I will always support the right for same-sex … couples to marry, and if and when a vote for marriage equality comes on in the Australian Parliament it will be a very, very good day,” she said.
Senator Catryna Bilyk said she, too, was a supporter of same-sex marriage but did not elaborate on what might inform her vote in the Parliament.
A spokesman for Senator Anne Urquhart said the senator would vote ‘yes’ in the Parliament, irrespective of the survey results.
Senator Carol Brown was contacted for comment.
Senator Helen Polley declined to comment.
THE GREENS
Both the Tasmanian Greens Senators said they would vote ‘yes’ in a parliamentary vote, even if the postal survey returned a majority ‘no’ result.
Senator Nick McKim said voting ‘yes’ was “the right thing to do”.
Senator Peter Whish-Wilson said he would vote ‘yes’ in the Parliament because “parliamentarians need to call out and end discrimination of any kind”.
INDEPENDENTS
Besides Senator Lambie, who has already made clear her intention to vote in accordance with the Tasmanian majority, independent Denison MHR Andrew Wilkie has said he would vote ‘yes’ in the Parliament no matter the results of the survey.
“I will vote in support of marriage equality in the Parliament which I don’t doubt will be consistent with the clear majority view in the Denison electorate,” he said.
Mr Wilkie mounted a failed High Court challenge against the postal survey, arguing it was unconstitutional.