The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a warmer-than-average spring for Tasmania, but technology is now available to create personalised seven-day weather forecasts for your area.
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For ease of measurement, the bureau breaks Tasmania up into around 7000 three kilometre by three kilometre squares, bureau customer engagement officer David James said.
“The rest of the country has six kilometre by six kilometre squares because it tends to be flatter, but Victoria and Tasmania use smaller squares because of the terrain,” Mr James said.
Elements, such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind, rainfall probability, likely rainfall amount and type of weather to expect, are measured in every individual square.
This information is then then used to deliver a weather snapshot for a whole day, right down to three-hourly increments via MetEye or the bureau’s app.
MetEye allows users to choose the forecast they need, such as rainfall; temperature; storm, snow or frost; humidity; wind or waves.
“These measurements are not just output from a model somewhere, but have had human interaction as well,” Mr James said.
Reference layers can be added to refine the forecast further by district, marine zone, road and railway, river and lake or catchments.
As mentioned above, the bureau’s climate outlook predicts warmer than average days and nights for the coming spring season.
Mr James said this was due to warmer than average sea temperatures around Tasmania.
“It won’t necessarily be a hot spring, but it will be warmer than average,” Mr James said.
Despite the warmer temperatures, the climate outlook is not showing any significant wet or dry conditions for spring.
“The Pacific and Indian oceans are not doing anything special; they are in a neutral phase and are expected to remain the same until the end of the year,” Mr James said.
“The climate outlook is not showing any significant rainfall above or below average for Tasmania,” he said.
There is always debate around the accuracy of weather prediction, with outlooks for this time of year tending towards “moderate” accuracy, Mr James said.