The dry and warmer conditions Tasmania has been experiencing are expected to continue for the next three months.
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Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predictions for rainfall and temperature show April is likely to be drier than average, with below average rainfall for the next three months.
The outlook for rainfall in the second quarter of 2017 is a median of 467mm.
This outlook is influenced by, “warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean, and some cooling of the Coral Sea,” BOM said.
Tasmanian outlooks follow a similar pattern to most of the country for the next quarter.
“April to June rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern two-thirds of mainland Australia excluding the east coast, and above average for the far north,” BOM said.
Day and night temperatures between April and June will be warmer than average.
“In Tasmania, the chances of warmer than average daytime and overnight temperatures are very high (greater than 80 per cent) for April, and for April to June,” the BOM website said.
The warmer temperatures experienced are again due to the Pacific sea warming and a cooler Indian Ocean.
Temperature outlooks for April to June at Western Creek show Tasmania’s median top of 7.3 degrees and minimum of 0.7 degrees.
However, the chance of temperatures rising above these medians is “very likely”.
BOM’s climate model shows the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is staying neutral for now, but that could change by the end of this measurement period.
“The Bureau's climate model suggests El Niño conditions are likely to develop during winter – in line with most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau. However, some caution should be exercised as models have lower accuracy at this time of year in forecasting El Niño,” BOM said.
For more information about weather patterns visit www.bom.gov.au