A University of Tasmania political expert has predicted an ongoing blame game will prevail in the Coalition, following the loss of Liberal seats in Braddon, Bass and Lyons.
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Associate Professor Richard Herr said the strong rejection of Liberal leadership shown by Tasmanians at the federal election had come as a surprise, but the result was indicative of a lack of trust in the Coalition.
He said that the election vote count could deepen tensions within the liberal party, who may only last one term in office.
“If the government doesn’t survive it’s first term they will find scapegoats to blame for it – it’s already started,” he said.
While votes are still being counted to determine senate members, Dr Herr said the priorities of Tasmanians had been made clear in their electorate support for Labor.
“Tasmanians have always been particularly concerned about being able to pay for the basics such as health and education,” Mr Herr said.
“The financial promises made under [former prime minister Tony] Abbott were defaulted on in ways which were broadly perceived as unfair and this hit home.”
Dr Herr said the loss of the state’s three Liberal seats in the lower house could create a divide within the Tasmanian Liberals.
“Will Hodgman is seen as a centrist leader and new Labor seats in the House of Representatives will see him tackle with the ultra-conservatives in his party,” he said.
Dr Herr said if the Liberals stay in power, key election promises made by the coalition would likely be delivered slowly, given the state’s swing to Labor.
“Do you feel obliged to fulfil promises you made to people who said they didn’t like you?” he said.
“We shouldn’t be surprised by a lack of urgency.”
Dr Herr said if a hung Parliament was formed, parties would be likely to make informal agreements with minorities and independents.
“Labor is more gun shy about deals given the lessons they learnt under the Gillard government.”
Dr Herr said if a party leads with a slim majority, they may consider giving the Speakership to a crossbencher.
“If it’s very close the speakership comes into play and you’d give the speakership to one of the crossbenchers to ensure at least a working majority.”
Independent MHR Andrew Wilkie has ruled out an interest in being Speaker.
