Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture senior research fellow on climate change Matthew Harrison said current predictions show the state being particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Dr Harrison said there was ‘‘no question’’ that if current climate modelling was accurate that climate change would not only have a detrimental impact on the state’s ability to grow premium produce but also to meet the growing local, national and international demand.

He said one of the ways it would affect the industry was it would shorten the pasture season.

‘‘Instead of pasture growing in January and into February it will grow later and end earlier,’’ he said.

The effects of a shorter pasture season has hit livestock farmers hard this year, with the state currently experiencing a fodder shortage.

With no pasture growing on the ground farmers have had to import or buy other forms of fodder and feed that could itself impact on the quality of the livestock and its products.

North-West cheesemaker Ueli Berger said the impacts of the dry season had yet to hit the cheese sector but said cows fed on fodder other than the nutrient-rich grass of the North-West could impact the quality of milk.

‘‘They have to feed the cows something, but it might not be the beautiful green grass we’re used to,’’ Mr Berger said.

Similarly, the quality of livestock meat could be influenced by the type of feed being fed to the animals.

Dr Harrison said a lack of water, as drought conditions become more frequent, would also impact on the season. If extreme drought conditions became more frequent there was the possibility of increased use of water restrictions, which would impact irrigators.

Climate change figures released as part of a joint report issued in 2010 by the Department of Primary Industries, Water and Environment and the Bureau of Meteorology  Climate Futures in Tasmania said the state’s temperatures are expected to rise as a result of climate change.

Temperatures across Tasmania are projected to increase by around 2.9 degrees by the end of the century under the high emissions scenario and 1.6 degrees under the low emissions scenario, according to the report.

Drought conditions are expected to remain historically the same, however there is expected to be a slight increase in the North-West.

Frost incidence is likely to reduce as the temperatures rise, according to the report.

Dr Harrison said an increase in temperature would allow for more produce to be grown in the state, as it would allow for the season to encroach further into winter but also said there was biosecurity risk.

Warmer temperatures will also increase the risk of diseases and bacteria coming to the state.

Evidence of this has been found in the recent discovery of Pacific Oyster Mortality Syndrome that was found for the first time in the state in recent weeks.

The virus has infiltrated at least one oyster operation in the North-East.

However, increased temperature as a result of climate change is not all bad, with the potential to benefit industries such as viticulture.

A recent TIA-managed project, carried out by consultants Richard Smart and Reuben Wells, found that many areas of Tasmania have climates and soils suitable to support new and increased planting of vineyards.

‘‘A number of the large interstate growers and wine makers have already recognised this and for the past few years have been buying land and established orchards, berry plantings and vineyards in addition to securing contracts for grapes from Tasmania,’’ Associate Professor Dugald Close said.

Drought-like conditions have been experienced by many farmers across the state and has led to a raft of measures being introduced by the federal and state governments.

Primary Industries Minister Jeremy Rockliff said the state government had invested in future-proofing the industry, with measures such as the roll-out of irrigation schemes across the state.

‘‘In the last 10 years the total water stored in farm dams has increased by more than 178,000 megalitres,’’ Mr Rockliff said.

‘‘Last year parliament passed new legislation to make it simpler to get farm dams approved.

‘‘Tasmanian Irrigation has completed 10 major new schemes, adding 75,000 megalitres in irrigation capacity across almost 133,000 hectares, providing farmers with 95 per cent water reliability for a century.’’

Mr Rockliff said the drought of 2007 was a catalyst for expanding irrigation and said this drought reminded everyone that there was still more work to do.

‘‘Tasmanian farmers are resilient and they are innovative. It’s never easy, and there’s been significant challenges in recent months, but we’re there supporting them all the way,’’ he said.