THERE is no way Tasmanians will tolerate an increase in the GST rate.
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We are a fickle bunch with double standards. We want the best of government services and benefits, as long as we don't have to pay for it.
If the Turnbull government is ultimately spooked over the GST debate it will have to cut services. Either way it won't win the debate.
The GST is a user-pays tax that grows as a percentage of consumption. It grows according to our capacity to pay.
That's the theory. Most taxpayers see it vastly differently. Federal income tax raises $176 billion a year, company tax $68 billion, the GST $57 billion, state taxes $1 billion and local government rates $450 million.
Battlers reckon they do enough. The cream of their weekly income is torn to shreds by money hungry politicians and aldermen.
By 2018-19 the GST take nationally will rise by 20 per cent to $68 billion. That's a big jump in a climate of low inflation. Raising the GST rate to 15 per cent will raise even more - $256 billion over four years.
The counter argument is, an increased rate would include compensation for low income earners, while all GST revenue automatically goes to the states for improved services, such as police, housing, schools and hospitals. That's the beauty of the GST. It is user-pays and all of it goes to the states and territories.
But that won't reassure battlers, nor our nervous backbench pollies. In 1993 and 1998 battlers punished the Coalition for flirting with a GST. John Howard won a landslide in 1996 only to lose much of the huge majority in 1998, even though he took the proposal to an election. In Bass the tax cost Warwick Smith his seat twice, in 1993 and 1998.
We're a nation of hypocrites. Labor, National, Liberal or Green, we loathe the GST but love the income. Coalition backbench pomposity towards the tax will grow - winning an election will always trump a tax. Someone please tell Treasurer Scott Morrison.