Either Sebastian Coe or Sergey Bubka, both extraordinary champions of the sport in their day, will become just the sixth leader of the world's largest sporting organisation in its 104-year history.

The nominated delegates of 213 national federations will gather in Beijing just before this year's world championships which began on Saturday to make what undoubtedly is a critical decision for the sport.

The two newest federations - Kosovo and South Sudan - will be elevated from provisional membership before the vote while the body's 214th member - Gabon - is likely to have its status withdrawn at the same time as it is what the sport officially describes as "not being in good standing".

These margins might be important in the vote, as while in terms of the declared nations, Coe has a substantial lead, the reality is that fewer than 40 have publicly indicated which way they will vote.

Much of South America is said to be lining up behind the Ukrainian while the majority of their northern neighbours are likely to support the London 2012 Olympic Games chairman.

The still-silent nations of Western Europe are likely to be cancelled out by their eastern counterparts.

Singapore has perhaps surprisingly come out in support of Bubka, as has Kazakhstan, the only other Asian nation to indicate its intentions. Maybe others will follow.

The general thinking is that Africa may end up being an even split which might leave Oceania's 20 votes as being more precious than they are often given credit for.

Only New Zealand (for Coe) has declared so far.

It is the expression of the modern democracy in most international sporting federations - one vote for each country, so that tiny populations like Montserrat, Anguilla and Norfolk Island have the same voting power as China, India and the US.

There is another reality, of course - in that the doping issues currently facing the sport are far more relevant in less than half the voting nations.

Numerically, countries which are participant-based easily outnumber those who have athletes competing at a higher level where the fight against drugs is more poignant.

It's not to say that the former nations don't take an interest in such matters but their focus is more on what might grow and prosper school athletics and public mass participation events rather than the circuit.

But sponsors, the media and governments of the larger nations will be less reluctant to look favourably on athletics unless whoever takes charge at the end of the championships on August 31 is quickly able to convince them that there is no real crisis.

What has been placed in the public domain might look bad but what has been going on inside the IAAF in fighting the scourge, particularly in the past 10 years, is impressive. It just needs to be explained in a convincing and believable way.

Both men have the standing to do it. Soon we will learn who has been given the nod to do so.