It's on the cards. New voting rules applying after the revolving door left behind by Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard makes it harder to dislodge an incumbent, but as former power broker Graham Richardson famously said in his book - whatever it takes.

Federal Labor Leader Bill Shorten is defying the drover's dog principle, once articulated by Bill Hayden when he surrendered to Bob Hawke in 1983.

A drover's dog could beat Tony Abbott in the current climate, but not Bill.

The Coalition's charm offensive barely masks a shambolic regime, but miraculously, they are competitive again and staying out of trouble.

Mr Shorten should be miles in front and stepping on the gas with new policies, but he has slipped behind his opponent and his party holds a mere slender lead in the polls.

Labor is barely in the game.

The party appears to have nestled into the old adage that oppositions don't win elections - governments lose them.

Mr Shorten's dominant Right faction won't matter greatly if a majority in his caucus favours his deputy and the Left's champion Tanya Plibersek.

Yes, new rules introduced by Kevin Rudd as a parting shot to his assassins prevent a sudden caucus leadership spill, but if caucus believes he can't win the next election the discontent will soon filter down among branches and unions.

Secondly, Bill Shorten is unelectable.

His reputation is very much the calculating opportunist, backing Julia Gillard and then Kevin Rudd in the revolving door leadership battle.

Tanya Plibersek staked out her challenge when she recently called for a binding caucus vote on gay marriage while her leader was overseas.

Her leader backs a conscience vote.

The scene is set for a show down at the party's July national conference.

If she's hot for the leadership among colleagues there will only be feeble attempts to resolve the gay marriage policy before national conference.

Shorten and Plibersek are from opposing factions, but when Labor wants a new leader the factions take a back seat and cross-factional deals take over.

For many within Labor the current malaise begs the question - why aren't they miles in front of the Coalition?

In Tasmania Bryan Green is equally perched on a question gone begging.

After damaging public service job cuts and cuts to services, plus little else to crow about how come the Libs maintain a handy lead in the polls?

Premier Will Hodgman still reigns as the leader most Tasmanians prefer.

An EMRS poll is due out shortly.

Labor's vote has improved since the election in 2013, but so it should.

In fact Labor should be streets ahead even if it was a fake lead.

Voters will always kick a popular government in the pants in opinion polls, when there is no danger of kicking too hard.

It's not happening for Bryan Green. He's a relic from the past and it's time to go.

His likely successor is fellow Leftwing Member for Lyons Rebecca White.

An accomplished horse rider she has rural pedigree, she's attractive and she appears to be gaining solidly in confidence.

Again Labor locally has new leadership rules that favour incumbents, but unless the party under Mr Green starts trending up in the polls a leadership change is certain.

It may take the federal and Tasmanian parties two terms to win back government, so no sense in squandering the first chance with a lame duck loser.

Time to blood the next one.

If the Tanya Plibersek, Rebecca White options show the potential to make their parties competitive in a two-election strategy they will be given that chance.