THE church and allied organisations will lose the gay marriage debate; outgunned and outmanoeuvered in the debate and hamstrung by their own deeds of darkness.
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The debate over moral issues, such as gay marriage and abortion, is always a scramble for the middle ground, which usually means the opposing view automatically becomes marginalised.
Two's a crowd at this strategic vantage point. Once there, the defender becomes almost impossible to dislodge. This is where the church lost. You can almost plot the battle and its outcome.
There will still be many Australians who oppose gay marriage, but once their warriors forfeited the middle ground, the issue became susceptible to change and parliamentary reform.
The church lost because of a combination of factors. Advocates of gay marriage discovered the term marriage equality.
They got there eventually; starting with same-sex marriage and settling brilliantly on marriage equality.
It sounds more inclusive than gay marriage or same-sex marriage. It implies the Aussie notion of a fair go and it put opponents on the defensive.
No longer did advocates have to argue for gay marriage. Opponents were forced to argue why it was not a question of equality. Virtually impossible in this society.
This is pretty dangerous territory for the church, because the middle ground can be used to overturn and marginalise a whole host of religious shibboleths.
"No longer did advocates have to argue for gay marriage. Opponents were forced to argue why it was not a question of equality. Virtually impossible in this society."
The other salient reason for the outcome is the church's dark history, the infamous and historical own goal.
The Royal Commission into the abuse of children in pastoral care destroyed the church's notion of the rights of the child. The issue of children has been central to its position on gay marriage. If you like, the church's moral claim to the middle ground.
How hypocritical for the church to question the care of children in the debate about gay marriage, given the abuse dealt out to kids by the church hierarchy. Not just the odd priest, but elements of the hierarchy, who either engaged in the abuse or covered it up.
To be fair, the stigma applies to a small minority within the church but the stigma has smeared the good along with the bad.
The church has so damaged its image in Australia that minority religions have a better, superior reputation. Under these circumstances, the church may well have forfeited its chances of winning the debate.
So how does the church recover? More than ever in this modern world of violence and greed, the church has a crucial role to play as the ambulance at the top and bottom of the proverbial cliff.
In spite of the sullied reputation, there are few institutions with the same passion as the church and its welfare arms, such as Anglicare and Centrecare, in saving people from themselves and from harm's way.
The church and allied institutions, like the Salvos and City Mission, have few peers in this regard. It astounds me that the church wastes its time and energy on theological issues such as stem cell research and abortion or the RU486 debate, while a whole human race is out there battling and suffering society's evils.
The church need not abandon its principles or dogma. It has a beautiful story of love and empathy in this world of hate, which so often is relegated to the margins while an overly intellectual clergy engage in the great debates of theology and morality.
While the church is cloistered and distracted by doctrine, it will always be blind sided by the real battle taking place all around it.