The debate over who Michael Clarke was going to replace as the captain's unreliable hamstring allowed him to jog gingerly back into the national cricket team provoked plenty of debate across Australia.

However, only in the country's island state did it reached fever pitch.

The widespread fear here was that Clarke's return for Saturday's World Cup blockbuster against Bangladesh would trigger a James Bond-style ejector seat beneath stand-in skipper, all-round nice guy and — most importantly — proud Tasmanian, George Bailey.

Nowhere was this sentiment more delicately expressed than on the Facebook page headlined: "If Bailey gets dropped Tasmania riots."

It's a brilliant page, offering colourful shots of GB alongside one of a riot and the explanation: "George Bailey is Australia's highest ranked ODI batsman! He has done a great job as stand-in skipper. Yet he is on the brink of being dropped. That's bull."

As of Thursday afternoon, there were 333 likes. In Tasmanian terms, where low population density and apathy to action go hand-in-hand, that's a healthy turnout.

It may not qualify as a riot, but a mildly disgruntled posse certainly.

However, by yesterday there were 482 likes. Pitchfork time.

Fortunately for national selectors, Cyclone Marcia prompted Saturday's cancellation and gave them another week before having to name who will make way for Clarke, a fact neatly summed up with the post: "No game today is good for Tasmania. No riots to be had."

A general theme among respondents was the belief that Shane Watson should be the axed player.

One comment said: "If Bailey is dropped and Watson gets a cheap 50 because the team are playing Bangladesh, I will be spewing!"

Another suggested that the extra wait between fixtures "gives Watson a week to get injured again".

Tracking down the man behind the page, I discovered that by a huge coincidence, uncannily common in this state, he plays for Bailey's old team South Launceston. I know, what are the chances?

We'll call him Roy to keep things anonymous. But his real name is Ray.

"I set it up because George has done all the hard work in taking over the team and yet he is the man who has to take the fall while Shane Watson gets chance after chance," Roy said.

"I think this frustrates most Tasmanians and we're pretty patriotic here."

I attempted to take sentiment and parochialism out of the debate and examine the cold hard figures.

Roy's brother (who we'll call Jock, even though his name's Jack) had posted that in their last five ODIs, Bailey has averaged 30.4, with one 50, while Watson's 22.6 and no half-centuries was supported by one wicket . . . at 98.00. Clearly Bailey should bowl more.

On Cricinfo's table of most runs in a series by a captain, the Tasmanian sits fifth for his 478 in India in 2013-14, but notably that came from just six matches. The four players above him played a minimum of 11.

Since the start of 2013, only Aaron Finch has scored more ODI runs for Australia with 1582. Bailey is just six behind him (with a superior average, twice as many half-centuries and more sixes). The next batsman (Glenn Maxwell) is nearly 600 runs behind. Watson trots in behind him with an average (35.19) well below Bailey's 42.59.

It is also worth noting that most of the time Bailey has been making this contribution he has also been shouldering the responsibility of captaincy.

Enough of this reasoned debate malarkey. Marcia's intervention and Saturday's cancellation give selectors another week before the Aussies face potentially the most pivotal match of the group stage — against rampant co-host New Zealand in Auckland.

They have already said Clarke will definitely play and it has been widely predicted — even by Bailey himself — that the vice-captain will be the one to make way.

Having just felt the full force of a cyclone, Cricket Australia could find itself in the path of a lynch mob.

However, even respondents on my new favourite Facebook page suggest that is not very likely.

One simply commented: "Tasmania riots? Yeah right."