The Prince Philip knighthood on our national day was so stupid as an idea, it goes directly to character and brings the PM's personal credentials to be the nation's leader into sharp focus.

As the tradition goes, the unlikely opposition leaders are usually the ones who often make the best prime ministers or premiers. Think of Bob Carr in NSW and Jeff Kennett in Victoria. Hopeless and seemingly unelectable in opposition but given the opportunity they shone as state leaders.

Michael Field seemed like a confused opposition leader; hesitant, reluctant; a man of mixed messages, but as premier he was a strong leader and only the chaos with the Greens in minority government defeated him.

People held their breath when Bob Hawke became PM. Many believed he would be an embarrassment because of his larrikin past, but for most of his reign he was a disciplined leader. John Howard was a dead-man-walking as a hapless opposition leader after his shambolic 1987 election loss. Less than a decade later he became PM in a landslide.

Tony Abbott has broken the mould. In opposition he saw off two prime ministers and almost won the 2010 election after one term of Labor government. He was tough and focused, but as prime minister he is awkward, stumbling and unpredictable.

The 2014 budget was an honest but albeit unfair attempt to steady the nation's finances. Economists may have criticised various measures but they lauded the overall strategy. Once again the Budget hit a brick wall when the Abbott leadership team dropped the discipline: Joe Hockey's fat Cuban cigar after finalising the Budget; Tony Abbott chuckling to colleagues while seated directly behind his Treasurer as Hockey read the riot act to battlers on Budget night; stupid statements from Joe Hockey, like the poorest don't drive so they won't he hurt by the fuel excise increase. These are the telling signs of an elitist mentality and no amount of charm or contrition can overcome them.

Last year the PM used his key G20 address to world leaders in Brisbane, to rant on about sideshow domestic issues. Another gaffe. Another grand opportunity lost.

The government, namely Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, has shone with its international role over the two Malaysian airlines tragedies and in the war against Islamic State, but just when he wanted to reboot his government's momentum Tony Abbott knights royalty to celebrate our Australia Day. His extraordinary gaffe will not topple his prime ministership tomorrow, but it will undermine him and his standing among colleagues. The next election is due later next year. It is not light-years away.

Governments always have to tough out the tough times, but the task is a vain hope if people have already lost confidence in the leadership.

I like Tony Abbott. I grew to respect him during the Howard years and beyond. He came across as a tough politician; cool under pressure and with a big heart for issues like the plight of Aboriginal people in Western Australia and the Top End.

But his decision to bestow a knighthood on an elitist and insensitive British duke, and to be so insensitive as to do it on a day when Australians emotionally and patriotically take stock of who they are, is just as unexplainable as it is unforgivable.

There would be literally tens of thousands of Australians more deserving of an Australian honors knighthood than a British Royal consort. 

I believe Bill Shorten is unelectable because of his ample excess baggage. Quite apart from his fickle behaviour during the Rudd-Gillard melodramas, his behaviour at Beaconsfield in 2006 left me cold. If the Labor Party switched national leaders to Tanya Plibersek the Coalition would be in serious trouble next year.

Ultimately Julie Bishop is the Coalition's saviour. She knows how to behave as a stateswoman and she exudes grace and leadership. If Scott Morrison became her head-kicking deputy, as a deputy should be, the Coalition would give Labor, even under a Plibersek leadership, a run for its money.

All this is unlikely, of course, because both major parties are still gun-shy of future party room spills, after the destruction to Labor caused by the Rudd-Gillard rivalry.

But time can change things. The opinion polls in the first half of this year will be a pivotal barometer for change.