GOVERNMENTS don't normally lose elections with their first budget but we have seen first hand from Canberra that the collateral damage can be hugely damaging.
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In the case of Tasmania, the Greens and Labor will be highly annoyed by Peter Gutwein's first budget.
Annoyed because there is no smoking gun, or cigar-smoking treasurer, and no surprises.
When a government delivers its election promises in its first budget it is virtually impossible for its opponents to land a punch.
Traditionally governments start their terms with budgets of attrition and then gradually soften until a sweetener in election year - please use Queensland Premier Campbell Newman as exhibit A.
Everybody is so primed for this budget 101 model that not starting with a slash and burn budget actually departs from the norm.
After such a long time in opposition Will Hodgman made a virtue of promising no surprises.
He promised to axe the Tasmanian Forest Agreement and that is now guaranteed after support from the upper house this week.
The radical green groups described it as an "absolute tragic day" but they are failing to read the mood of the electorate which is sick and tired of the forest argument.
Perennial whinger Peg Putt described the unlocking of 400,000 hectares of native forest in six years' time and helping our craft furniture industry with access to specialist timbers as "putting the state in a perilous situation".
Take a look at the unemployment rate Ms Putt - that is the only thing perilous in this state.
Bryan Green's main beef is public service jobs losses, the same losses identified in the forward estimate by Labor and the Greens.
To argue now that Tasmania cannot have a leaner and more efficient public service is ludicrous.
The unions went into the budget thinking that 1500 jobs would go. They now find it is only 700 and that drop will be achieved mostly by natural attrition.
The 2 per cent public service wage freeze for one year is probably the most contentious measure but it is a level of pain that the state's 25,000 public servants may have to accept to save the job of a mate.
Back office jobs relocated to the front line is what the pubic was promised.
Extending high school to year 12 in country regions has resonated and Education Minister Jeremy Rockliff has wisely shelved the same for city high schools that are well catered for by colleges.
Tasmania does not have the capacity to turn around huge deficits and revenue shortfalls overnight.
No-one pays off the mortgage in one year but voters understand a steady mix of responsible cost-cutting, a sensible growth plan and the entrepreneurial flexibility to invest in niche growth prospects for the state.
The fact that Treasurer Gutwein is promising a steady six-year program back to a surplus will resonate with voters.
Gutwein is a quality media performer. Despite being a savage opponent on the floor of Parliament he delivers a believable message of restraint and measured growth.
This state budget may well be criticised for its lack of vision and it certainly doesn't tackle the bigger issues like school and council mergers.
However, it satisfies a community craving stable, predictable and sensible government that has been lacking in this state for many years now.
Will Hodgman's Liberal government is barely six months into a four-year term - at this stage predictable politics is smart politics and that is what this budget delivers.
