Make-up of lower house becoming clearer

TASMANIANS will soon know the exact make-up of the state's 25-member House of Assembly, with the deadline to submit postal votes closing this morning.

Electoral Commission staff spent yesterday carving up surplus votes of candidates who tallied more than the quota required to be elected to the lower house.

The final batch of postal votes will be included this morning, before Hare- Clark scrutiny steps up a gear.

"But with more than 30 more candidates registered in this state election, the final results may not be known until Thursday or Friday" - Andrew Hawkey

Deputy commissioner Andrew Hawkey said at least three candidates in each electorate should be elected by the end of the day.

"But with more than 30 more candidates registered in this state election, the final results may not be known until Thursday or Friday," Mr Hawkey said.

Yesterday's distribution of preferences shed light on tussles in each of the state's five electorates.

LIBERAL candidate Paul Harriss looks almost certain to beat Labor minister David O'Byrne in the race for the fifth Franklin seat.

Mr O'Byrne's chances of retaining his seat had relied on "leakage" from Premier-elect Will Hodgman's whopping 12,000 vote surplus.

But 94 per cent of Mr Hodgman's surplus was shared among Liberal candidates, with very little preference flow distributed to rival parties.

Mr Harriss now has a comfortable lead over Labor's Mr O'Byrne, with about 800 votes separating them overnight.

Almost 7000 of the Premier-elect's surplus votes went to incumbent Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma, securing her spot in the new-look lower house.

Some of Mr Hodgman's surplus has also elected Labor leader Lara Giddings.

Greens leader Nick McKim is set to be returned.

TWO front-runners have emerged in a four-way race for Labor's second Denison seat.

Veteran Labor MP Julian Amos has edged ahead of lawyer Madeleine Ogilvie following yesterday's provisional distribution.

Dr Amos now has a 190-vote buffer.

The election chances of Sharon Carnes and Alphonse Mulumba appear to be losing momentum.

VINEYARD owner Sarah Courtney leads a Liberal pack to pick up the party's third Bass seat.

Ms Courtney has almost doubled her lead on Dorset Mayor Barry Jarvis, and now leads by more than 800 votes.

The fate of Labor's Brian Wightman and the Greens' Kim Booth remains unclear.

ROGER Jaensch has increased his lead over fellow Liberal candidate Joan Rylah by more than 400 votes in a tussle for the third Braddon seat.

Mr Jaensch yesterday received the largest slice of surpluses from incumbent Liberal MPs Adam Brooks and Jeremy Rockliff.

The preliminary distribution appears to have marginally improved the chances of rogue Labor MP Brenton Best being returned to Parliament.

However, Electoral Commissioner Julian Type said regardless of which Liberal candidate secured the third Braddon seat, the other would remain in the hunt for the fourth.

COMMISSION staff made short work of the Lyons carve-up yesterday.

Just 35 surplus votes from elected Liberal MP Rene Hidding needed to be shared around, with 30 of them being distributed among Liberal candidates.

Labor's David Llewellyn remains a slight favourite over the Greens' Tim Morris to snare the fifth seat in Lyons, but the result still hangs in the balance.

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