THE state Liberals may rue their pledge to govern alone or not at all as the rise of the Palmer United Party makes a parliamentary majority more difficult to reach.
The party of the moment peaked at 9.6 per cent in Braddon, twice the vote of the Greens, and has the state election in its sights.
PUP Senate candidate Jacqui Lambie, now in a preference battle to win a Senate seat, said win or lose the party was behind a major state election tilt.
``We're running a full state team next March and there's been a lot more interest in the last week,'' Ms Lambie said.
``The party is going to be here to stay and we're going to get the best of the best running.''
An analysis by The Examiner of the federal vote using the quotas applied to the Tasmanian House of Assembly reveals PUP could obtain a seat in both Braddon and Lyons on preferences.
If the vote is replicated in the March poll, the Liberals could fall short of 13 seats and would rely on a preference flow to get there.
Furthermore, the Greens would not reach a quota in any electorate, and could fall to just two members.
Despite the huge swing, Labor's caucus would be returned in its entirety with two seats in each electorate.
While the Palmer vote could end up as a flash in the pan, should Ms Lambie take her place in the Senate and build a strong campaign, the party could conceivably build on that total.
While the mining maverick's political offshoot presents a political headache for the Liberals, both leader Will Hodgman and Jeremy Rockliff took to the soapbox yesterday to argue the case against.
Mr Hodgman said the only way to ``end this instability was to vote Liberal'', and the party was not anticipating the scenario where it would need to form a parliamentary coalition.
Privately, Liberal sources are bullish on their chances, suggesting Saturday's huge swing to Liberal candidates would be replicated in March.
``This weekend was just the softball bats, the baseball bats will still be out in March,'' one senior figure said.
Greens leader Nick McKim had fun with the Liberal majority pledge, saying it could cost Mr Hodgman his job.
``If there's a power sharing parliament elected . . . he'll get rolled inside his party room and they'll install Peter Gutwein because I can't believe any political party would choose to spend 20 years in opposition,'' Mr McKim said.
Mr McKim said the PUP message was quite anti-politician and was ``a fair bit of a protest vote''.