LABOR is heading for a thrashing at Saturday's federal election based on an exclusive survey for The Examiner in the marginal Bass electorate.
The survey by national pollsters ReachTEL on Tuesday night, four days before the federal poll, reveals that Bass voters will probably know on election night that Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic is their new federal representative because of the size of the win.
The results don't bode well for Labor generally across the state with a significant majority of those surveyed choosing Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister to Kevin Rudd and a dramatic 79 per cent believing that the Liberal Coalition will win government regardless of their own voting intentions.
The survey asked nearly 660 voters from a broad age and gender demographic who they would give their first preference to if the election was the day that they were surveyed.
Only 26.6 per cent chose sitting Bass Labor MHR Geoff Lyons, while 51.8 per cent opted for Mr Nikolic.
There was 15.4 per cent more support for Tony Abbott as the preferred prime minister than for Kevin Rudd.
The results came despite a flurry of visits to Tasmania's marginal seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons by senior Labor ministers with a number of last- minute funding announcements.
Earlier polls, now strengthened by this latest swing to Mr Abbott, indicate that the Liberals should win Braddon and Lyons and have a chance to oust Julie Collins in Franklin.