A KEY forestry industry group has described predictions that up to 2000 jobs would be lost if the Tasmanian forestry peace deal is rejected as unrealistic and too bleak.
A socio-economic study, commissioned by the federal government, found about 400 jobs would go if the agreement to slash wood supply and protect 560,000 hectares of forest was implemented.
However, the assessment also considered what would happen if a do-nothing approach was taken and found 697 industry jobs would disappear and another 559 would go as a result of the flow-on effect to other sectors of the economy.
Forest Industries Association of Tasmania chief executive Terry Edwards, a signatory to the peace agreement, said that scenario was based on the flawed assumption that Ta Ann Tasmania would close its two mills and none of the 572,000 hectares nominated by environment groups for protection could be logged.
"The underlying assumptions are extreme," Mr Edwards said.
With 400 jobs expected to be lost under the agreement, Mr Edwards said only the state's elected representatives could decide whether or not they could live with that.
"There are some people that say one job is too high a price to pay, I don't know the answer," Mr Edwards said.
The absence of a socio-economic report was a key reason a majority of MLCs voted to delay a vote on the legislation to enact the agreement until next month.
Report author Dr Bob Smith, a Forestry Tasmania director, will front the Legislative Council committee analysing the legislation today.
Huon MLC Paul Harriss, who is committee chairman, said Dr Smith could expect a grilling about the figures used as a baseline and in the second scenario.
"The worst case scenario, which Bob Smith is putting in this document, is not going to be reality," Mr Harriss said.
State and federal governments seized on the report as evidence that the agreement would save 500 jobs in the ailing forestry industry, which had already shed 1800 positions between 2006 and 2011.
Federal Regional Development Minister Simon Crean, in Hobart yesterday to release the report, said the job figures would make the MLCs' decision a "no brainer".
Premier Lara Giddings said it was compelling evidence and time was up for the Legislative Council.
Liberal forestry spokesman Peter Gutwein said the worst case scenario painted in the report was "absurd" and the only reliable figure was confirmation about 400 jobs would be lost under the agreement.
