Today's EMRS poll indicates that is unlikely to happen.

Mr Titmus has 36 per cent of the vote, while Labor opponent Geoff Lyons has 39 per cent.

With 11 per cent undecided, there is a small chance Mr Titmus could get the required primary vote to get across the line.

But the two-party-preferred results put it beyond him, with Labor winning 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

Greens candidate Sancia Colgrave has 13 per cent of the vote, and the poll notes there is a strong preference flow from the Greens to Labor.

Looking at recent history, the Liberal candidate in Bass has needed a strong personal vote to get across the line.

In 2004, Liberal candidate Michael Ferguson won 49 per cent of the primary vote, needing only a trickle of Green preferences to oust Labor's Michelle O'Byrne.

In 2007 Mr Ferguson's vote dropped to 43.5 per cent and Labor candidate Jodie Campbell's 37 per cent was enough to get her over the line thanks to the Greens.

While the status of Bass as a marginal seat has been clear for some time, the changing voting patterns in Tasmania mean it may not be marginal for much longer.

Unhappy Labor voters have not flooded to the Liberals, instead choosing to vote Green to show their displeasure with Labor.

With Green preferences steadily flowing back to Labor, it has meant those voters have not been lost from the Labor base - they just take longer to arrive in the counting process.

Bass has lacked a set of issues driving the election campaign.

Health services - which Tasmanian voters put as the most important election issue - have largely been dealt with by state and federal governments at previous elections.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard's semi-regular appearances have possibly helped shore up the vote, while Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has chosen to spend his time in seats on the mainland that the Liberals must feel they are more likely to win.