The poll of 1000 was taken two days after the Pembroke by-election, which at the time was showing Vanessa Goodwin polling well ahead of her rivals on primaries.

Clearly the Liberals have leveraged traction from the Legislative Council election result as they had hoped.

The EMRS poll is still showing a hung Parliament which is nothing new, but it is showing the first possible signs of a collapse in the Labor vote, and this is reflected both in a 13 point drop in support for Labor in Premier David Bartlett's electorate of Denison, and the historical change in the result for preferred premier from Mr Bartlett to Will Hodgman.

Political party support will always fluctuate in the polls, but when the Opposition Leader snatches the lead in the preferred premier stakes it becomes interesting.

When Kevin Rudd snatched the lead as preferred prime minister from John Howard in late 2006 the political community knew there was a swing in the air. Until then Mr Howard seldom lost this contest.

If the latest EMRS results are repeated in a similar fashion later this year Labor could be in real trouble and the poison of longevity in government and a few scandals would obviously be at play.

If the results next time show a return to a routine Labor lead, and therefore show that the August vote was merely a spike, built artificially around the Goodwin success, then the Liberals should despair.

If anything the poll shows an electorate potentially growing tired of the status quo and looking for an excuse to change their vote. The challenge is there for Will Hodgman.

If his party fails to provide the excuse for a change it is likely that voters will play it safe with Labor closer to the election when the lead usually narrows anyway.

Ms Goodwin's success has provided the momentum for greater voter interest in her party.

How the Liberals use this momentum in the next few months will be an education in how well prepared and how disciplined they are for a return to government.

- BARRY PRISMALL, deputy editor