The Examiner's exclusive EMRS poll predicts Labor's Geoff Lyons will take Bass and incumbent Sid Sidebottom will hold Braddon.

The two-party-preferred numbers show the stark reality of the political landscape in Tasmania.

Labor's vote sits at 60 per cent - with a strong preference flow from the Greens - while the Liberals sit at 40 per cent.

They are virtually the same percentages as the March 20 state election, with Labor and the Greens winning about 60 per cent of the vote.

The polling shows why Labor has barely spent any new money in Bass and can afford to ignore community anger over cancer services in Braddon.

It also shows why Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott have not bothered to campaign in Denison or Franklin, with Ms Gillard making a cursory appearance in Lyons to officially launch the national broadband network.

Instead, they have focused their attentions on marginal seats in New South Wales and Queensland.

In Bass, Mr Lyons has 39 per cent of the vote, with Liberal candidate Steve Titmus on 36.

Mr Titmus would need all the undecided voters to make a late swing to the Liberals and still sweat on Green preferences.

In Braddon, Mr Sidebottom can count on a 40 per cent vote, with a 13 per cent Green vote surely enough to get him over the line again.

Denison newcomer Jonathan Jackson has walked into a safe Labor seat and should have no problems holding off the Greens.

In Franklin, the Green vote has almost topped the Liberals', but Labor incumbent Julie Collins will be safe.

Lyons incumbent Dick Adams also looks set to hold his seat comfortably, with the highest primary vote of any candidate in the state.

The EMRS poll was conducted between Wednesday, August 11, and Friday, August 13.