The latest EMRS political poll predicts that he could lose his seat to first-time Labor candidate Scott Bacon - the son of former premier Jim Bacon.

The poll shows that only one seat in Denison could go to Labor and that Mr Bacon would pick up 10per cent of the first and second voting preferences, leaving Mr Bartlett and ministers Graeme Sturges and Lisa Singh out of a job.

Mr Bartlett yesterday said the poll did not reflect the mood of the electorate.

"A week out from the last election at least two newspapers and one TV station predicted that I'd lose my seat - I ended up topping the poll," he said.

Political analyst Richard Herr said political newcomers appeared to have established good name recognition and were therefore a risk to sitting members.

"Name recognition is a vital factor in the Hare- Clark electoral system," Professor Herr said.

The up-and-comers included:

•First-time Denison Liberal candidate Matthew Groom - the son of former premier Ray Groom - who was polled as the best performer for his party in Denison.

•Brother of Bass Labor MHA Michelle O'Byrne, Franklin Labor candidate David O'Byrne, who polled better than Deputy Premier Lara Giddings.

•First-time Braddon Liberal candidate Adam Brooks, whose popularity was on a par with Liberal MHA Brett Whiteley.

Candidates yesterday played down the role their family name plays in winning votes.

Mr O'Byrne said the "North-South divide" made his relation to his sister a non-issue. "Very few people on the doors make that connection," he said.

Mr Groom said he was campaigning on the Matthew Groom name.

"I've got my own story to tell and I think it's resonating," he said.