INFRASTRUCTURE Minister Graeme Sturges has lost his seat and Corrections Minister Lisa Singh will struggle to hold hers after voters sent a strong message to Labor yesterday.
Premier David Bartlett and Scott Bacon will be elected for Labor, with the Liberals' Matthew Groom certain of a seat along with the Greens' Cassy O'Connor, who was second only to Mr Bartlett on primary votes in Denison.
The fifth seat is most likely a three-way battle between the Greens' Helen Burnet, independent Andrew Wilkie and a Liberal candidate, most likely either Richard Lowrie or Elise Archer.
Mr Wilkie, a former Greens candidate who campaigned on an anti- pokies platform, received 4905 primary votes at the end of counting last night.
Ms Singh, the third most popular on the Labor ticket, received 3536.
Mr Bartlett last night described his parliamentary colleagues as friends for life.
"The electorate has sent a very strong message to Labor," he said. "To those of my party colleagues who have lost their seats ... like me they believe in Tasmania and they have worked hard for their electorates and I'm sorry I haven't been able to deliver for them."
After some predictions Mr Bacon might outpoll Mr Bartlett, the Premier was more than 2000 votes ahead.