IF AN election was to be held tomorrow, the make-up of State Parliament would scarcely change, according to EMRS poll results released yesterday.
The results of the poll of 1000 Tasmanians show support for the Labor Party has decreased by 1 per cent to 33 per cent since February, while support for the Opposition has decreased by 2 per cent to 27 per cent in the same period.
Support for the Greens has dropped by 1 per cent to 13 per cent.
Since May 2008, the Liberals' rating has continued to fall, dropping from 33 to 27 per cent, which political analyst Tony McCall described as worrying for the Opposition.
While the poll shows the Opposition may pick up a seat in Franklin, Dr McCall said the Liberals' rating in the capital city electorate of Denison of 28 per cent - compared with Labor's 45 - was a concern.
"Twenty-eight per cent against 45 gets you one member and they need to strive for two to be in government," he said.
To add to their list of woes, the Liberals also have problems in Lyons, according to Dr McCall who said Opposition Leader Will Hodgman's 24 per cent rating as preferred Premier in the electorate - a Liberal stronghold in the days of the Groom government - was another concern for the Opposition.
But Mr Hodgman said the Liberals could win the 2010 election.
"Every single election is winnable, every election is losable," he said.
"I'm entirely confident about our prospects but I'm under no illusions about the task ahead of us."
Tasmanian Greens leader Nick McKim, whose party has fallen in popularity from 18 per cent in May 2008 to 13 per cent, according to the poll, said he was not disappointed with the Greens' results.
"We're only focused on one poll and if you can believe David Bartlett that's the one that'll be held in March next year," he said.
"We know that we've got a lot of work to do to put forward a positive policy platform for the Tasmanian community to judge us on and we're determined to do that between now and the next election."
As support for the Liberals and the Greens has fallen, the undecided vote has risen from 20 per cent in February to 24 per cent.
Dr McCall said the most likely explanation for this was the economic climate.
"People are going to go into hiding and they'll only start to refocus at the time," he said.
Given the number of undecided votes, Dr McCall said it was difficult to predict the likelihood of a hung Parliament, but that hasn't stopped Mr Bartlett from issuing a warning to Tasmanians about such an outcome.
"I think it's a very real prospect and I think it's a prospect Tasmanians should be deeply concerned about," he said.
Mr Hodgman said Mr Bartlett's aversion to a hung Parliament was "reminiscent of the 1980s".
"Tasmanians are smart people, they deserve the respect from the political leaders that would say we'll deal with whatever result we're given," he said.
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